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1、TAIWANTaiwanStrategyTopMarchpicksBuySellFebruarypull-backofferinggoodentryTechNanyaTech(2408TT)Novatek(3034TT)NontechAIDC(2634TT)St.Shine(1565TT)Continuetoprefertech(semi/IA/servers)overnon-techFinE.Sun(2884TT)MegaFHC(2886TT)Source:MacquarieResearch,Fe
2、bruary2018TheTAIEXisdown2.3%inFebruary,alongwithotherglobalmarkets(foreignsellingofUS$3.1bnalreadyoffsettheUS$2.7bnbuyinginJanuary).TechQFIImonthlyfundflow(2017-2018YTD)underperformed(down3.4%)whilefinancials(-1.1%),andnon-tech(-1.7%)(NT$bn)outperform
3、ed(all3sectorssawforeignoutflows).NT$wasdown0.2%.100Nochangetoour2018year-endforecastforTAIEXof11,650(15xconsensus500multiple–vs8-yearaverageof16x)andTWD(NT$30/US$).Marketestimate-50for2017/18/19EPSgrowthis12%/9%/6%.Wecontinuetoexpecttechand-100financ
4、ialstooutperformin2018(non-techtounderperformagain).-150Overweighttechandfinancials,underweightnon-techn-17JaFeb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Tech:Wemaintainabullishmultipleyearoutlookonthesemiconductor,ser
5、verandtheindustrialautomation(IA)markets–wheremanyofourtopbuyQFIImonthlyfundflowpicksareconcentrated.WeexpectmultipleyearsofsemiconductorgrowthtoSource:TEJ,MacquarieResearch,February2018bedrivenbyacombinationofcontentgrowthinPCandsmartphones,January/Fe
6、bruaryTaiwankeyreports:coupledwithunitgrowthinautoelectronics,IoTrelated,datacenter(pluscontentgrowth),cryptocurrencyrelated,etc.ASPEED(InitiatingcoveragewithOutperform)-ExtendingbeyondthecloudWithinsemis,welikeTSMC(solidEPSgrowthandtechnologyleadersh
7、ip),Realtek(InitiatingcoveragewithOutperform)MediaTek(marginrebound),ASE(benefitsofSPILacquisition),NanyaTech-Connectingtomulti-yearup-cycles(strong2018bitgrowthandhigherDRAMASPs),GlobalWafers(continuedChroma(DowngradetoNeutral)rawwaferASPhikes),Powert
8、ech(stronggrowthacrossall3majorproducts),KingSlideWorks(UpgradetoOutperform)Parade(high-speedcommunicationtechnology),andAspeed(servergrowth+newproducts).Forothertechnames,welikeHonHai(long-termgrowthinEVandautomation),AirTAC(continuedm
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