麦格理-亚洲-股票策略-准备战斗：从财报季看股市

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1、ASIAReadyforBattleStockstowatchthisearningsseasonMacquarie’s‘ReadyforBattle’(RfB)highlightssomeofthehighest-convictionbottomupearningscallsfromourcoverageofnearly1,000stocksinAsia.Inthisquarter’sreport,wehighlight22stockswherewehavedifferentiatedfull-year2017Eor2018Eearn

2、ingsestimatesvsconsensus,andwherewehaveconvictionthatconsensusislikelytomovetowardsourestimatesoverthecourseofthenextfewweeks.Ourobjectiveistoidentifystockswhereweexpectconsensusearningsrevisions(ratherthanlookbackwardsonrevisionsthathavealreadymaterialised).Earnings:16u

3、pgradeand6downgradecandidatesAshasbeenthecaseinthelastsixquarters,ourearningsconvictionideaslisthasmoreearningsupgradevsdowngradecandidates.Ofthe22stockswehighlightinthisreport,thereare16stockswhereouranalystsexpectPastperformanceofRfBpicks–LONGconsensusearningsupgradesb

4、asedonfull-yearearningsestimates.NotablesideupgradecandidatesareZTE,COSL,CKAssetandHondaMotors.Incontrast,15.0%12.5%wehave6stockswherewehaveconvictionthatthesearelikelytosuffer10.0%consensusearningsdowngradesintotheyear-end;themostnotableofthese7.5%5.0%includeHenganandJF

5、EHoldings.2.5%0.0%Figures1-4insideshowskeypicksfortheupcomingearningsseason.Theylist-2.5%detailsforeachofourhighestconvictionearningscalls,includingthemagnitude-5.0%-7.5%ofearningsdifferentiationandreasonsbehindourdifferentiatedestimates.-10.0%201320132013201320142014201

6、420142015201520152016201620162016201720172017Earningsmatter–sowearestickingournecksoutQ1-Q2-Q3-Q4-Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4-Q1-Q2-Q3-Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4-Q1-Q2-Q3-Longside(reltoMSCIACAsia,LC)AsiaexJPLongside(reltoMXASJ,LC)WecontinuetoemphasisetheimportanceofearningsasthebiggestdriverofSource:F

7、actSet,Bloomberg;MacquarieResearch,Jan2018;SeeFig7forimportantfootnotesshareholderreturnsinthelongterm.Macquarie’sQuantitativeResearchteamkeepstrackofsharepriceperformancedatabrokendownbyearningsrevision,multipleexpansion,anddividendpayment.Webelievegettingearningscorrec

8、tiscritical.Track-recordofourpastRfBpicksDespiteourRfBpicksbeingpurelybottom-updriven(withoutanymacroov