麦格理-菲律宾-投资策略-菲律宾策略：3季度提供了良好的盈利增长

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1、PHILIPPINESPhilippinesStrategyPhilippinesectoralvaluations3Q17deliversgoodearningsgrowthPEREPSchP/BROEYield(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)ConclusionCo2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EBanks15.123.61.712.31.4Wejustconcludedwiththe3Q17corporateearningsresultsseason.ThishasConsumer25.510.33.914.91.4Conglomerates

2、21.014.82.512.51.0proventobeasourceofupbeatsentiment,withaggregatenetincomeProperty25.215.63.113.21.4achievingouroptimisticforecastsat13.9%Y/Ygrowth.ThiswasbyfartheTelecoms15.510.93.021.64.1Utilities15.63.92.817.43.2strongestquarterfornetincomegrowthin2017forourcoverageuniverse,Philipp

3、ines18.014.82.713.81.5contrastingwithlow-single-digitgrowthin1Q17and2Q17.ThispositiveSource:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,NovemberearningsdeliverystrengthensouroverweightviewofthePhilippines.2017;pricesasof17November2017ImpactPhilippinetoppicksinorderofMajoritymetourexpectations.Amajo

4、rity(75%)ofourcoverageuniversepreference-valuationsturnedin3Q17earningsthatmetourabove-consensusexpectations.ThisPEREPSchP/BROEYieldhelpeddriveoverallearningsgrowthin3Q17tobethebestquarterforthe(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)Co2018E2018E2018E2018E2018Eyearat13.9%higherY/Y.Thiscompareswith2.1%Y/Ygrowth

5、in2Q17andMPIPM15.8(0.7)1.27.91.33.4%Y/Ygrowthin1Q17.With9M17growthnowat7.1%Y/Y,wethinkthatMEGPM11.716.91.210.51.1our2017Enetprofitgrowthforecastof10.4%islookingreasonable.URCPM26.011.23.413.71.9ALIPM21.119.23.315.91.1PGOLDPM19.812.42.413.00.6Propertyandutilitiesfaredbestin3Q17.Wewerep

6、artlycorrectinBDOPM17.426.62.011.81.4forecastingthepropertysectortofarewellduringthequarter,with3Q17netACPM18.115.32.413.80.5MBTPM11.921.91.211.11.1profitgrowthof15.3%Y/Yresultingin9M17netprofitgrowthof13.3%Y/Y.Source:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,NovemberExceedingourmodestexpectations

7、weretheutilitiessector,whichhad3Q172017;pricesasof17November2017netprofitgrowthof25.6%Y/Ythatledto12.0%Y/Ygrowthfor9M17.Consumersectorfellshort,butfromalessworrisomearea.ThePhilippinetoppicksinorderofconsumersectordisappointedthemostwithnetprofitgrowingbyjust5.5%inpreference-ratings