麦格理-菲律宾-投资策略-菲律宾策略：风化更高利率

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1、PHILIPPINESPhilippinesStrategyPhilippinesectoralvaluationPEEPSchP/BROEYieldWeatheringhigherinterestrates(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)Sector2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EConclusionBanks16.323.41.811.91.2Consumer29.610.54.414.91.3Conglomerates21.215.22.512.61.0WemaintainouroverweightstanceonthePhilippines.Weth

2、inkthatmostProperty24.715.03.113.31.4corporatesshouldbeabletoweatherhigherinterestratesduetomanageableTelecoms13.88.52.821.44.4Utilities15.25.32.818.33.2debtlevelsthatarealsooftenonfixedrates.Philippines18.116.72.813.71.5Source:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,FebruaryImpact2018;pricedasof9Feb

3、ruary2018Banksbenefitthemost.Anincreaseininterestratesshouldbenefitthebankingsectorthemostonthebackofimprovednetinterestmargins.WePhilippinetoppicksinorderofestimatethatthethreelargestbankswouldanaverageEPSenhancementofpreference-valuations5%shoulda25bpincreaseinbenchmarkrates.LargeCASAdep

4、osits(>60%)PEEPSchP/BROEYieldshouldcomeinhandy,aswellasloanswheremajorityarerepriceable.(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EPropertycompanieslikelytocontinuelaunches.WeexpectthatpropertyBDOPM18.125.82.011.61.3SMPHPM31.715.13.712.21.3companieswillcontinuetolaunchmoreresidentialprojectsi

5、n2018toridetheBPIPM16.619.42.013.61.3resurgenceindemandfromlastyear.AyalaLandandMegaworld,thetwoALIPM21.719.23.416.81.1MBTPM12.524.51.310.71.0largestresidentialdevelopersbytake-upvalue,arekeentoincreaselaunchesMEGPM10.516.91.110.51.2thisyearinlightofdeclininginventorylevels.Inaddition,wecon

6、tinuetoseePGOLDPM20.712.42.613.00.6RRHIPM23.113.92.310.50.8strongdemandfromChinesebuyersduetoexpansionofoffshoregaming.Source:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,FebruaryConsumer/Retail–fairlyinsulatedduetounderleveragedpositions.We2018;pricedasof9February2018expectminimalearningsimpacttoPHconsu

7、mer/retailcompaniesofrisinginterestratesgiventheirrelativelylowdebtlevels,withgrossD/Eat0.1-0.6xPhilippinetoppicksinorderofasofSep2017(netD/Erangingfromnetcashpositionto0.5x).Whilepreference-ratings,PTcompaniescontinuetoexpand,capexcanlargelybeinternally