麦格理-菲律宾-宏观策略-菲律宾策略：来自世界的另一边

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1、PHILIPPINESPhilippinesStrategyPhilippinesectoralvaluationsFromtheothersideoftheworldPEREPSchP/BROEYield(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)ConclusionCo2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EBanks14.822.91.712.51.4WeremaincomfortablewithourcurrentOVERWEIGHTonthePhilippines,Consumer26.010.33.815.11.4Conglomerates21.114.82

2、.512.51.0followingatwoweekanalystroadshowinEuropeandtheUS.InvestorsweProperty25.415.63.213.21.3metgenerallyhadlimitedexistingholdingsinthePhilippines,pointingtohighTelecoms15.110.93.121.74.0Utilities15.73.92.617.23.3valuationsandconcernsprimarilyonmacroandpolitics.However,wesensedPhilip

3、pines18.114.82.713.91.5thatoptimismisimprovingespeciallypostmeetings,withanimprovingSource:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,Octobercorporateearningsbackdropbeingcomplementedbylikelyforthcoming2017;pricesasof17October2017positivemacronewsflowintheoffing.ImpactPhilippinetoppicksinorderofpref

4、erence-valuationsLimitedholdings:highvaluations,concernsonmacroandpolitics.OverPEREPSchP/BROEYieldaspanoftwoweeksinananalystroadshowintheUSandEurope,wefind(x)(%)(x)(%)(%)Co2018E2018E2018E2018E2018EthatstockownershipinthePhilippineswasquitelimited.ThemostcitedMPIPM16.2(0.7)1.27.91.3reas

5、onforstayinginthesidelineswasthemarket’spremiumvaluation(18xMEGPM11.716.91.210.51.1PERfor2018E,higherthanhistoricalaverageandAsia/ASEANpeers)andURCPM26.110.23.614.41.9ALIPM21.419.23.415.91.1theperceptionofrisingmacroandpoliticalrisks.ThecountryshiftingtoaPGOLDPM20.812.52.713.60.6current

6、accountdeficitwasaconcernformany,aswellasthenegativeBDOPM17.126.61.911.81.4ACPM19.215.32.513.80.4publicityrelatedtoPresidentDuterte’santi-drugandcrimecampaign.MBTPM11.521.91.211.11.1Source:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,OctoberOptimismmaybesettingin,ledbyearningsandpotentiallybetter2017

7、;pricesasof17October2017macronewsflow.Nonetheless,wefeltthatforthemostpartforbothcontinentsthattherewasgreateroptimismafterthemeetings.Philippines’Philippinetoppicksinorderofimprovingcorporateearningspicture,ledbythepropertyandconsumerpreference-ratings,mktcap,volatilitysectors