麦格理-东盟-宏观经济-看好菲律宾和新加坡-20170915-macquarie-eyeon asean：we like the philippines and singapore

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1、ASEANEyeonASEANASEANindextargetsYTDIndexIndexDiff.TSRFwdWelikethePhilippinesandSingapore(US$)TodayTarget(%)(%)PERSingapore20%3,2213,4005.69.014.0ConclusionPhilippines16%8,1458,6005.67.217.8Malaysia16%1,7811,8222.35.416.0‘WhichwillbethetopperformingASEANmarketin2018?’Indonesia(

2、28%)Indonesia12%5,8525,700-2.6-0.615.2Thailand16%1,6591,553-6.4-3.415.2andThailand(24%)wonthemostresponsesatourASEANconference.WeSource:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,Pricedasof14aremorecautiousonthesemarkets,focusingontheselectedopportunitiesSeptember2017below.WeseebettervalueinS

3、G(18%ofvote)ledbybanks.AndwhilePhilsASEANtoppickshasdroppedininvestors’peckingorder(15%ofpoll),westaypositiveandMktcapPricePricePriceTSRseegoodstoriesinproperty,consumerandinfra.InMalaysia,whichgotthe(US$m)RecpriceTodayTarget(%)last15%,westilllikethecatalyst-richconstructionand

4、GLCreformthemes.Near-termcatalystsonthehorizonADROIJ4,217OIDR1,7402,30038ImpactMPIPM4,191OPHP6.778.3024SIMEMK14,774OMYR9.1410.7019IVLTB6,692OTHB42.2549.0018Singapore:Bankssteamingahead.OurFSSTItargetoffersthehighestOCBCSP34,245OSGD11.0012.2014TSRinASEAN.Banksremainsourfavourit

5、esectorandweseeMASmonthlyMedium-termcompoundersloangrowthdatainthemid-tohighsingledigitsasthenear-termcatalystTNBMK19,610OMYR14.5819.0034SCBTB15,739OTHB153.50184.0023(OCBCisbestpositionedonassetqualityandourtoppick).OurCAPLNDRCAPLSP11,613OSGD3.664.3221inEuropebolstersourconfide

6、nceinthiscompounderpick.WeseepositiveMEGPM3,389OPHP5.356.4021BBCAIJ35,682OIDR19,10020,4008catalystsforKREITandTHBEV,butflagtimingconsiderationsinthereport.SmallbutbeautifulMTLSTB2,177OTHB34.0046.0036Philippines:Welikepropertyandconsumersectorsthemost.PhilsisourPOSMMK1,034OMYR5

7、.567.3033regionalstrategyteam’sloneOW-ratedASEANcountry,andourbottom-upITMGIJ1,670OIDR19,50023,00029CEBPM1,330OPHP11214028next-twelve-monthindextargetof8,600offersaTSRof8%.WethinkmacroECONMK393OMYR3.093.5015concernsareexaggeratedandseeexecutionontaxreformandinfrastructureUnderp

8、erformswithcatalystsroll-outaspositivetop-downcatalyst