麦格理-新加坡策略-坚持银行与房地产-20170907-singapore strategy：sticking with banks and property-macquarie

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1、SINGAPORESingaporeStrategyHighsingle-digitEPSgrowthlookswellStickingwithBanksandPropertysupportedtous…(S$)2409%10%Conclusion8%2309%8%WeraiseourFSSTItargetby5%,from3,235to3,400,drivenequallybyan2207%2106%improvingtop-downpictureandaggregatedbottom-uppricetargetupgrades6%2005%fromourteam.Wh

2、ileSG’sexpectedEPSgrowthremainsamongtheregion’s1904%lowest,SG’sdefensiveattributesand4%yieldshouldproveattractiveamid3%1802%currentgeopoliticaluncertainty(Figs1-2).Financialsisourmostfavoured1701%225226220sector.Ourtoppicksareablendofcompoundersandvaluationplays(Fig7).1600%MQTopDownMQBotto

3、mupConsensusImpactFY17EFSSTIEPSFY17EFSSTIEPSgrowthSource:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,September2017Goodvibrations…TheMTIrecentlynarrowedits2017GDPgrowthoutlookto2-3%(1-3%before),NODX’sreboundiscominginbetterthanexpected,…butvaluationsbumpingagainsttheretailex-motorsalesaretrendingup,andSGDlo

4、okswellsupported.Froma+1STDceilingbottom-upperspective,wewereencouragedbythepositivecommentary,onbalance,fromthe21SingaporecorporatesatourrecentASEANconference.16.0…buthighvaluations.FSSTI’s+1STDbandisprovingtobeahardceilingagain.Theindex’s14.2xnext-twelve-monthPERlooksaboutfairtous,which

5、14.0putssector/stockselectionintofocus.Intermsofourpositioning:WeraiseourOWinFinancials.Thebankssectorhasseenthehighest12.0Today:14.2EPSupgradeswithintheindexYTD(Fig4).AndbasedonhisproprietaryAvg.:13.5+1STD:14.6analysis,Kenexpectsmid-tohigh-single-digitloangrowthwithNIMsset-1STD:12.410.0t

6、obenefitfromrisingratesandhigherLDRs.This,coupledwithbetterJan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17FSSTINTMPE(cons.)costefficiency,offsetstheimpactofaslower-than-expecteddeclineinNTM=“Nexttwelvemonths”provisions.OCBCisbestpositionedonassetquality,andisourtoppick,Source:FactSet,Macq

7、uarieResearch,September2017replacingDBS(whichwekeepasanOWinourmodelportfolio,Fig6).ToppicksNochangetoOWinProperty,whichhasalsoseensolidconsensusMktcap(S$)TargetTotalPE(x)upgrades,ledbytoppickCAPL.Thetop-downcaseforREITsismixed,(US$m)Pricepricereturn17EVol.but