麦格理-新加坡-宏观策略-新加坡策略：2018年预算支持积极观点

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1、SINGAPORESingaporeStrategyFiscalspendingsettopickupinFY18Budget2018supportspositiveview(+8%versus4-5%inFY16-17)Conclusion12.080.090.010.071.073.980.067.4MOFoutlinedanexpansionarybudgetforFY18,withexpendituregrowthof8.070.056.66.051.760.0+8%settocomeinaheadofa-3%e

2、xpectedrevenuecontraction(offahigh4.050.0base;FY17revenuecamein9%aheadofbudget).Potentialpitfalls(GST,e-2.040.05.00.66.19.6commercetax)weremitigated,whilethemainnegativesurprise(1%increase0.030.0(4.1)(0.6)intopmarginalBuyer’sStampDutyonresidentialproperty)doesnotl

3、ooktoo(2.0)20.0(4.0)10.0oneroustous.AndwhilethelinkbetweenfiscalspendingandindexEPSisa(6.0)0.0bitloose,whencoupledwithstronghigherfrequencytop-downdrivers(e.g.201320142015201620172018ENODX,S$)weseeourpositiveviewonSingaporewellsupported.Surplus/(Def.)(S$b)Tot.Expe

4、nditure,rhs(S$b)Source:Singaporegovernment,MacquarieResearch,ImpactFebruary2018FY18’sexpansionarybudgetcontinuesthethemesofSMEandelderlyLinkbetweenfiscalspendingandEPSsupportviaextension/enhancementofinitiativesfromtheFY16-17budgetsisloose,butexpansionaryFY18plus

5、coveringtaxrelief,wagecredits,continuingeducation,selectedhealthcare,solidhighfrequencytop-downdriversandhousing.ForeignworkerlevyincreasesinthemarinesectoralsogetsupportmarketEPSoutlook,wethinkdeferredforanotheryear(Keppelisourpreferredplayhere).Longerterm,the25%

6、budgetsustainsinvestmentinIPandR&DinitiativestoensureSingapore’s19%20%competitivenesswhileInfrastructureremainsafocusareaaswell,withS$20b14%15%10%settobespentinFY18(upfromS$8.5bin2011).Thiswillcoverareaslike9%8%10%6%5%5%4%railexpansion,redevelopment(JurongLake,Pun

7、ggol,WoodlandsNorth),5%0%ChangiT5andotherstrategicprojects(welikeSATSasaplayonT5).-5%-1%-1%Potentialpitfallsavoided:Awidelyexpected2%GSTincreasewillonlybe-10%-9%-15%implementedbyFY21-FY25.Ane-commercetaxwasalsoannounced,but201320142015201620172018Elimitedtoservic

8、es(andonlyby2020)withgoodsnotinscope.ThismitigatesFSSTIEPSgrowth(Cons.)Govexpendituretwopotentialriskstopersonalconsumption,whichhasre-emergedasakeySour