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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaProperty25July2017PropertyPropertyIndustryUpdateJeffreyGao,CFAJasonChing,CFA1H17resultspreview:strongearningsResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036256(+852)22036205growthwithmarginimprovementjeffrey.gao@db.comjason.ching@db.com
2、Strong1H17Fresultswithcoreprofitsup>25%overallStephenCheung,CFAWeexpectChinapropertydeveloperstodeliverstrong1H17Fresultsoverall,ResearchAnalystthoughwithdivergence:1)earningsup>25%overallwithone-thirdof(+852)22036182companiestoreportmorethan50%coreprofitsgrowth,butone-thirdtoreport
3、stephen-a.cheung@db.comsingle-digitgrowthonly;2)grossmargintoexpandby~2ppt.withsignificantpricerisesoverpast12months;3)netgearingtorise5-10%thankstoFooLeungaggressivelandacquisitions/M&Aduring1H.WeexpectdeveloperstoraiseResearchAssociatetheirfull-yearsalestargetsduring1Horbeattheiro
4、riginaltargetatyear-end,(+852)22036239giventheyhadcompleted56%byJuneonaverage.foo.leung@db.comWhichcompaniesdoweexpecttoreportstrongresults?Drivenbystrongsalesin2016andYTD2017,weexpectthefollowingnamestoreportstrong1H17Fresults:CountryGardenandVanketoreport20-30%earningsgrowthwiths
5、lightmarginexpansionamidstablegearing;CIFI,Agile,andChinaSCEtoreport>50%earningsgrowthduetostronggrossmarginexpansionbutwithhighergearing;Evergrandetoreport>100%earningsgrowththankstostrongbooking,marginimprovementandrelativelylowbaselastyear.Also,itsnetgearingshouldbemuchloweraft
6、ertheintroductionofRMB70bnfundingfromstrategicinvestors.Whichcompaniesdoweexpecttoreportfairresults?Withrelativelybumpybookings/one-offdisposalgainslastyear(higherbase),webelieveGemdale,GZR&F,Shimao,andSino-Oceantoreportfairresults.Theyshouldgenerallyreporthighergearing,especiallyR&
7、Fafteraggressivelandacquisitions/M&Aduring1H2017.Shimaoshouldshowmarginexpansionto29-30%,whileSino-OceanandGZR&Fmaypotentiallyshowlowermarginsduetothebookingofprojectswithrelativelylowprofitmargins.Whatweexpectandthekeytrendstowatchfor1H17and2018FWesummarizefourkeyfinancialtrendsfor
8、thedevelopers:1)giv
