j.p. 摩根-中国-地产行业-中国地产业：信心恢复的开始；2017年上半年回顾-20170903-jpmorgan-china property the start of confidence restoration 1h17 results review

《j.p. 摩根-中国-地产行业-中国地产业：信心恢复的开始；2017年上半年回顾-20170903-jpmorgan-china property the start of confidence restoration 1h17 results review》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Completed03Sep201708:00PMHKTDisseminated03Sep201708:28PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch03September2017ChinaPropertyThestartofconfidencerestoration;1H17resultsreviewTheinterimresultsofChinadevelopersmakeusturnmorepositiveonthesector,Chinadrivenbyoptimisminearningsandmarginoutlook.Keysurprisescomefrom

2、(1)China/HongKongPropertybetter-than-expectedcostcontrol,(2)olderlandbankaccountsforbiggerportionACRyanLi,CFAofdelivery,(3)morelandbankingactivitiesintheM&Amarketatlowcostand(852)2800-8529(4)strongsalesgrowthguidanceinto2018.Wethinktheinterimresultsprovideryan.lh.li@jpmorgan.comsufficientevidence

3、tothemarketthatROEandmarginsareonasoliduptrend,BloombergJPMARLIandcontractedsalesgrowthshouldbeinplacetobecomekeysharepriceKarlChandriversin2H17.Webelieveproperty-relatedsystematicriskwillcontinuetofall,(852)2800-8513eventuallyinducingmacrofundstore-enterthesector.Themarketisskepticalkarl.cha

4、n@jpmorgan.comabouttheoutlookpost-potentialcredittighteningin4Q17,andwhendevelopersAveryChandeliverstrongnumbers,thesectorcouldseeanotherlegofre-rates,wheresome(852)2800-8659avery.chan@jpmorgan.comstockscouldhitnewhighssince2015.Ourtoppicksamongblue-chipsareJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limite

5、dVanke-H/COLI,welikeCountryGarden/Longforamongmid-capsandAgile/KWGamongsmall-caps.WealsoupgradeR&FtoNeutral(fromUW).Developers’marketsharetocontinuetrendingup:Frombothdemandandsupplyweseedevelopersrunningonalower-riskoperationalmodel.Onsupply,Developers’landbankyearsgovernmentcontinuesrestrictin

6、glandsupply,andallnewwaysoflandsalesCountryGarden2.83.82018Eonlybenefitscalableones.Developerscandemonstratetheirabilitytogetland3.3COLI3.72017Einthesecondarymarket,andbecomeacquirersduringmarketconsolidation.Longfor3.44.5Hencetheirmarketshareislikelytogoupfurtherin2H17and2018.In7M2017Vanke3.63.4

7、developersacquiredabout30-40%oflandthroughM&A,andonaveragetheyEvergrande3.75.0gota25-30%grossmargin.Developersunderourcoverage’ssellableresourcesSUNAC4.46.0CIFI4.4aresettoincreaseby35%in2018EY/Y,andthetopeightdeveloper