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《j.p. 摩根-中国-地产行业-中国地产业：信心恢复的开始；2017年上半年回顾-20170903-jpmorgan-china property the start of confidence restoration 1h17 results review》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Completed03Sep201708:00PMHKTDisseminated03Sep201708:28PMHKTAsiaPacificEquityResearch03September2017ChinaPropertyThestartofconfidencerestoration;1H17resultsreviewTheinterimresultsofChinadevelopersmakeusturnmorepositiveonthesector,Chinadrivenbyoptimisminearningsandmarginout
2、look.Keysurprisescomefrom(1)China/HongKongPropertybetter-than-expectedcostcontrol,(2)olderlandbankaccountsforbiggerportionACRyanLi,CFAofdelivery,(3)morelandbankingactivitiesintheM&Amarketatlowcostand(852)2800-8529(4)strongsalesgrowthguidanceinto2018.Wethinktheinterimresul
3、tsprovideryan.lh.li@jpmorgan.comsufficientevidencetothemarketthatROEandmarginsareonasoliduptrend,BloombergJPMARLIandcontractedsalesgrowthshouldbeinplacetobecomekeysharepriceKarlChandriversin2H17.Webelieveproperty-relatedsystematicriskwillcontinuetofall,(852)2800-8513e
4、ventuallyinducingmacrofundstore-enterthesector.Themarketisskepticalkarl.chan@jpmorgan.comabouttheoutlookpost-potentialcredittighteningin4Q17,andwhendevelopersAveryChandeliverstrongnumbers,thesectorcouldseeanotherlegofre-rates,wheresome(852)2800-8659avery.chan@jpmorgan.com
5、stockscouldhitnewhighssince2015.Ourtoppicksamongblue-chipsareJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedVanke-H/COLI,welikeCountryGarden/Longforamongmid-capsandAgile/KWGamongsmall-caps.WealsoupgradeR&FtoNeutral(fromUW).Developers’marketsharetocontinuetrendingup:Frombothdema
6、ndandsupplyweseedevelopersrunningonalower-riskoperationalmodel.Onsupply,Developers’landbankyearsgovernmentcontinuesrestrictinglandsupply,andallnewwaysoflandsalesCountryGarden2.83.82018Eonlybenefitscalableones.Developerscandemonstratetheirabilitytogetland3.3COLI3.72017Eint
7、hesecondarymarket,andbecomeacquirersduringmarketconsolidation.Longfor3.44.5Hencetheirmarketshareislikelytogoupfurtherin2H17and2018.In7M2017Vanke3.63.4developersacquiredabout30-40%oflandthroughM&A,andonaveragetheyEvergrande3.75.0gota25-30%grossmargin.Developersunderourcove
8、rage’ssellableresourcesSUNAC4.46.0CIFI4.4aresettoincreaseby35%in2018EY/Y,andthetopeightdeveloper
