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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChina12July2017ResourcesContainerboardForecastChangeJohnsonWan1Hpreview:astrongbeatatpeak-ResearchAnalyst(+852)22036163cyclemarginsjohnson.wan@db.com1HCY17toseerecord-highcoreEPSgrowthof59%/47%yoyforLMP&NDPKeyChangesWee
2、xpect1HCY17earningstobeatrecord-highs,withLMP/NDPseeingCompanyTargetPriceRatingearningsupby59%/47%respectively.NP/ttoreachHKD800/RMB382for2314.HK6.25to8.06(HKD)-LMP/NDPonourestimatesvs.consensusFY17ENP/tatHKD571/RMB322.2689.HK6.61to7.00(HKD)-However,thesemarginsareun
3、likelytobesustainablewithlargermillslosingSource:DeutscheBanksharetosmallermillsonproductionhalts,highdownstreaminventoriesandsignificantnewsupplyin2018.Ofthetwo,wepreferLMPoverNDPgivenitsToppickshigherexposure(51%)inSouthChina,betterproductmixwithmorelinerboardLee&M
4、anPaper(2314.HK),HKD7.41Holdandsolidmedium-termgrowthdriversintissue.Givenstrong1Hearnings,weNineDragonsPaper(2689.HK),HKD10.56SellraiseearningsandTPsbutmaintainHoldonLMPandSellonNDP.Source:DeutscheBankUpsidesurprises:containerboardpricingandtissuepapermarginsCompani
5、esFeaturedIntheabsenceofimprovedsupply-demand(utilizationtodropby3pptyoyto85%in2017),theresiliencein1H17paperpricinghasexceededindustryLee&ManPaper(2314.HK),HKD7.41Holdexpectationswithaveragecorrugatedmediumandlinerboardpricingup42%2016A2017E2018Eand38%yoy.Highpricin
6、gismainlyduetoastrategychangebyleadingP/E(x)8.97.98.7producers(lessrelatedtoenvironmentalrequirements)toincreaseproductionEV/EBITDA(x)8.57.47.4haltsandhoardmoreinventory,thuscreatinganartificialshortage.Therefore,Price/book(x)1.61.71.5averagepapermillinventorydaysros
7、eto15daysinMay-17versusonlysevenNineDragonsPaper(2689.HK),HKD10.56Selldaysin2H16and10daysin1H16.LMP’stissuepapersegmentshouldalso2016A2017E2018Esurprise,withmarginslikelyclosinginonHKD1,000/tduetoeconomiesofP/E(x)7.610.612.3scaleandhigherpulpprices.EV/EBITDA(x)6.77.6
8、8.6Downsidesurprises:lowervolumes,higherOCCcostsandhigherimportsPrice/book(x)0.91.51.4Howmuchvolumedidlargeplayersholdbackon?Webeli
