德意志银行-中国风电核电-china wind nuclear ipps：china wind nuclear ipps~1h preview；catching up in 2h-20170719-deutschebank

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1、ChinaWind/NuclearIPPsDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina19July2017ChinaWind/NuclearUtilitiesUtilitiesIPPsIndustryUpdateChinaWind/NuclearIPPs–1Hpreview;catchingupin2HMichaelTong,CFAAttractiverisk/rewardandwerecommendrotationtowind/nuclearlagga

2、rdsYTD,windutilizationhasimprovedyoy,drivenbyapowerdemandrecovery,ResearchAnalystbettersupplydisciplineandstrongerdispatchefforts.However,windstocks+852-22036167haveunderperformedHSCEIby10-22%,mainlyduetoweakwindspeedsanduncertaintyinthegreencertificatepoli

3、cy.Weviewwindspeedasashort-termLukaZhuvolatilityfactorbutwebelievethelong-lastingcurtailmentreductiontrendwillResearchAnalystbeintact.Thegreencertificateoverhangisoverlypricedin,inourview,and+852-22036173windstockscouldmimicgasstocks,whosesharepricerecover

4、edsharplyafterthepolicyoverhangwasremoved.CGNPowerisalaggard,mainlyduetotheKeyChangesTaishanprojectdelay,despitebeingclosertothefinalstep–fuelloading.AnotherCompanyTargetPriceRatingthermaltariffhikeattheyear-endwouldbodewellforbothwindandnuclear.0916.HK7.60

5、to7.40Through2017-19E,weforeseea12-20%earningsCAGRforwind/nuclearIPPs,0958.HK3.30to3.20underpinnedbycapacitygrowthandautilizationimprovementforwindplayers.0816.HK2.20to2.30Source:DeutscheBankHence,weseeattractiverisk/rewardandrecommendrotationtolaggardwin

6、d/nuclearnames,includingLongyuan,HNR,FuxinandCGNPower.ToppicksLongyuanPower(0916.HK),HKD5.62Buy1H17wind/nuclearIPPs'resultspreviewHuanengRenewables(0958.HK),HKD2.39BuyWedonotexpectmuchofasurpriseinwind/nuclearIPPs’1Hresults,astheirHuadianFuxin(0816.HK),HK

7、D1.80Buyoutputdatahavealreadybeenreleased.HNRislikelytorecord16%1HearningsCGNPower(1816.HK),HKD2.19BuySource:DeutscheBankgrowth,drivenby14%/29%increasesinwind/solaroutput.Longyuanislikelytoreport7%yoy1Hearningsgrowthonan11%windoutputincrease,similartothe1

8、Qtrend.Fuxincouldreporta9%earningsdrop,offahigh1H16baseandwithahydrooutputslumpandacoalpricehikeoffsettingawind/coaloutputrecoveryandarisingnuclearcontribution,whichshouldbewellexpectedbythemarket.CGNPower's2Qresultss