GS-China Clean Energy Wind-110704.pdf

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1、July4,2011China:CleanEnergy:WindEquityResearchStillpreferwindfarmstoequipmentmakers;BuyLongyuanRecoveryofequipmentmakershingesonprosperingwindfarmsWeseewideninggapsinthefortunesofwindfarmsandturbineVALUATIONSUMMARYmakers.Forturbinemakers,weseefurtherdeclinesintheirproductgrossStock1

2、2-monPriceP/E(X)CompanyTickerratingTP29-Jun-20112011E2012Emarginsandaveragesellingprices(ASPs),down15%/11%/4%inLongyuan0916.HKBuyHK$8.87.517142011E/2012E/2013E.Theystillindirectlyfundworkingcapitalofwindfarms.Goldwind(H)2208.HKSellHK$7.38.51315Goldwind(A)002202.SZSellRmb8.914.72732W

3、eexpecttheirfundamentalstostabilizenoearlierthanmid-2012E,andShanghaiElectric2727.HKSellHK$3.94.21513sowearenotbuyersofequipmentstocksyet.ChinaHighSpeed0658.HKNeutralHK$8.98.5910DongfangElectric(H)1072.HKNeutralHK$30.028.81514DongfangElectric(A)600875.SSNeutralRmb28.325.41614Wethink

4、establishedwindfarmswouldbenefitfrom:1)risingpowergridHarbinPower1133.HKNeutralHK$8.59.11211connectivityfrommoremeasuredturbinecapacitygrowth;2)improvingForimportantdisclosures,pleasegotohttp://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.turbinetechnology/reliability;3)fallingconstruction/operat

5、ingcosts;Source:Datastream,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates.4)morestablecashflowsfromgeographicdiversification;5)long-termoverseasexpansion.Correspondingly,successfulwindpowerequipmentmakersneedtocapitalizeontheabovetrends,i.e.1)optimizeRELATEDRESEARCHChinaCleanEnergy-Wind:Oversoldwind

6、powerinventory/plantutilizationlevels;2)ownproprietary/reliableturbineequipmentmakers;limitedsubsidycutimpacts,June9,technology;3)balanceASPcutsandwarrantyextension;4)offer2011equipmentacrossaspectrumofwindresources;5)securejointChinaCleanEnergy-Wind:Buyer’smarketforturbines:Buyvent

7、ureswithwindfarmstoinvestabroad.Longyuan;d/gGoldwind(H)toSell,April20,2011Goldwind:A/H-sharevaluationdichotomy;d/gAtoSell;WindturbineconnectivitycontinuestoimproveawaitingentryforH,March10,2011Chinaconnected4.1GWofwindturbinesyear-to-May,up33%yoy,higherChinaHighSpeedTransmission:Slo

8、winggearboxsales,th