德意志银行-中国医疗保健行业-2q17 earnings preview：expecting stable growth-20170721-deutschebank

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1、ChinaHealthcareDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina21July2017HongKongChinaHealthcareHealthCareIndustryUpdatePharmaceuticals/Biotechnology2Q17Earningspreview:expectingstablegrowthJackHu,PhDExpectinghealthyresults;toppicksincludeHengrui,SBPandUniversalWe

2、anticipatemostlargecapnamestodeliverin-lineresultswithstablegrowthResearchAnalystfortheincomingearningsseason.Weforecast24%/17%/27%EPSgrowthfor+852-22036208Hengrui/SBP/CSPCin2Q17,and13%/17%forSinopharmandShanghaiPharma,respectively,in1H17.Asreforminitiativesaregen

3、eratingimpactsontheentireLincYiuvaluechain,webelieveitwouldbeinterestingtorevisitnamesthattakeone-ResearchAssociatetimehit,includingPhoenix,Sinopharm,andCBPO/Hualan.Wehighlightourtop+852-22036248picksHengruiandSBPinviewofconsensus'under-appreciationforrespectivepi

4、pelines.Wealsohighlightkeynear-/mid-termcatalystsforHengrui,SBP,CSPCKeyChangesandCBPO.CompanyTargetPriceRatingCBPO.OQ155.00to140.00StablegrowthforflagshipproductsfromhighfrequencydataasofMay20171349.HK7.70to6.70ForHengrui,AiBeiNing,AiSu,AiSiKang,andAiTanachieved27%

5、,7%,10%andSource:DeutscheBank129%YoYgrowthinQTD2Q17,vs.40%,10%,11%,162%in1Q17and43%,1%,9%and162%in2016.ForSBP,Runzhong,Ganmei,KaifenandKaishiregisteredToppicks3%,8%,22%,-10%YoYgrowthforQTD2Q17,vs.7%,1%,30%,-3%in1Q17SinoBuyBiopharmaceuticaland17%,0%,32%and-1%in2016

6、.ForCSPC,NBPandOulainingrecorded31%,(1177.HK),HKD6.85-16%YoYgrowthinQTD2Q17,vs.7%,1%,30%,-3%in1Q17and17%,0%,32%HengruiMedicine(600276.SS),CNY50.55Buyand-1%in2016.For3SBio,itsShenyangsubsidiaryachieved17%YoYgrowthUniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD6.16Buyin5M17vs.20%in20

7、16,accordingtotheRxdatawetrack.Source:DeutscheBankFeedbackonimpactofreforminitiativesWehaveinterviewedstakeholdersalongthevaluechaininthepast2-3months.Webelievetheimplementationofatwo-invoicepolicyislikelytohaveamorepositiveimpactondistributionbellwethersvs.consen

8、suswhilethenegativeimpactonindirectsalesmightbelessthanpreviousexpectations.Asformanufacturers,theimpacthasbeenlimitedsofar.InadditiontoaslightASPerosio