j.p.摩根-美股-美国中小型银行2q17收益预览-2017.76-u.s. mid- and small-cap banks 2q17 earnings preview

j.p.摩根-美股-美国中小型银行2q17收益预览-2017.76-u.s. mid- and small-cap banks 2q17 earnings preview

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时间:2018-03-10

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1、Completed05Jul201709:29PMEDTDisseminated06Jul201712:15AMEDTNorthAmericaEquityResearch06July2017U.S.Mid-andSmall-CapBanks2Q17EarningsPreviewWeStayLongBankStocksbutTimeIsNoLongeronOurSide;AutoDeepDive;RetailCREExposurePosttheelectionvictoryofDonaldTrump,alongwiththeRepublicansh

2、avingU.S.MidandSmallCapBankscontrolintheHouseaswellastheSenate,wemovedintothebullcamponACStevenAlexopoulos,CFAregionalbankstocks.However,thefirst100daysofthenewAdministrationhave(1-212)622-6041passedwithprogressonseveralkeyareas,suchastaxpolicyandinfrastructuresteven.alexopou

3、los@jpmorgan.comimprovements,comingatasignificantlyslowerthanexpectedpace.WhileweBloombergJPMAALEXOPOULOSwerepleasantlysurprisedbythedepthofpotentialchangestocurrentbankingBenjaminMLurioregulationsasproposedbyTreasury,thetimingofputtingthroughmanyofthe(1-212)622-5787propo

4、salsintoactualpolicyremainsuncertain.Moreover,whilewecontinuetobenjamin.m.lurio@jpmorgan.comwaitforthebenefitsforbanksstockstoaccrue,risktothesectorismountinginJasonMOettingtheformofamaterialflatteningoftheyieldcurve.Additionally,withtheunwind(1-212)622-1497jason.m.oetting@jp

5、morgan.comoftheFed’sbalancesheetcoming“relativelysoon”it’sverycleartousthattimeCatalinaAraya,CFAisnolongeronoursideintermsofcreditcostsaswellasdepositbetasremaining(1-212)622-6601atabnormallylowlevels.Asaresult,weseethecurrenttimeasbeingopportunecatalina.araya@jpmorgan.comfor

6、long-onlyfundstostartbatteningdownthehatchesintermsofexposuretoJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCareassuchasautoorretailCRE.Withthebullmarketforbankstocksonthinningice,theoneitemkeepingusfromjumpingintothebearcampatthisjunctureisthat,withaverylowbar,anyprogressmadeontheGOPagendacouldsti

7、lldrivemeaningfulupsidetobankstocksovertheshortrun.Key2Q17trends:(1)WelookforNIMtoexpandanother4bpsinthequarter,(2)theH.8datapointstomid-singledigitloangrowthandadeclineindepositbalances,(3)mortgagebankingshouldreboundafteraseasonallyweak1Qandthedeclineinratesthisquarter,(4)

8、creditcostsshouldtickslightlyhigherbutremainatabnormallylowlevels,an

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