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1、Completed05Jul201709:29PMEDTDisseminated06Jul201712:15AMEDTNorthAmericaEquityResearch06July2017U.S.Mid-andSmall-CapBanks2Q17EarningsPreviewWeStayLongBankStocksbutTimeIsNoLongeronOurSide;AutoDeepDive;RetailCREExposurePosttheelectionvictoryofDonaldTrump,alongwiththeRepublicansh
2、avingU.S.MidandSmallCapBankscontrolintheHouseaswellastheSenate,wemovedintothebullcamponACStevenAlexopoulos,CFAregionalbankstocks.However,thefirst100daysofthenewAdministrationhave(1-212)622-6041passedwithprogressonseveralkeyareas,suchastaxpolicyandinfrastructuresteven.alexopou
3、los@jpmorgan.comimprovements,comingatasignificantlyslowerthanexpectedpace.WhileweBloombergJPMAALEXOPOULOSwerepleasantlysurprisedbythedepthofpotentialchangestocurrentbankingBenjaminMLurioregulationsasproposedbyTreasury,thetimingofputtingthroughmanyofthe(1-212)622-5787propo
4、salsintoactualpolicyremainsuncertain.Moreover,whilewecontinuetobenjamin.m.lurio@jpmorgan.comwaitforthebenefitsforbanksstockstoaccrue,risktothesectorismountinginJasonMOettingtheformofamaterialflatteningoftheyieldcurve.Additionally,withtheunwind(1-212)622-1497jason.m.oetting@jp
5、morgan.comoftheFed’sbalancesheetcoming“relativelysoon”it’sverycleartousthattimeCatalinaAraya,CFAisnolongeronoursideintermsofcreditcostsaswellasdepositbetasremaining(1-212)622-6601atabnormallylowlevels.Asaresult,weseethecurrenttimeasbeingopportunecatalina.araya@jpmorgan.comfor
6、long-onlyfundstostartbatteningdownthehatchesintermsofexposuretoJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCareassuchasautoorretailCRE.Withthebullmarketforbankstocksonthinningice,theoneitemkeepingusfromjumpingintothebearcampatthisjunctureisthat,withaverylowbar,anyprogressmadeontheGOPagendacouldsti
7、lldrivemeaningfulupsidetobankstocksovertheshortrun.Key2Q17trends:(1)WelookforNIMtoexpandanother4bpsinthequarter,(2)theH.8datapointstomid-singledigitloangrowthandadeclineindepositbalances,(3)mortgagebankingshouldreboundafteraseasonallyweak1Qandthedeclineinratesthisquarter,(4)
8、creditcostsshouldtickslightlyhigherbutremainatabnormallylowlevels,an
