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1、EquityResearch19July2017ConsumerINDUSTRYUPDATE2Q17“AllConsumer”EPSPreviewU.S.CHPC&BeveragesNEUTRALWeexpectslowingU.S.categorygrowthtoremainafocusasrecentscannerdataUnchangedsuggests2Q17trendshaveremainedchallenged...Followinganabruptcategoryslowdownin1Q17,manyLarge-capStaplescompanieshighlightedani
2、mprovementinApriltrends,U.S.Foodsuggestingthat1Q17couldhavebeenanomalous(ifnottimingrelated).Sincethen,we’dNEUTRALnoteP&Ghasmentionedthatithasnotseenanimprovement,KelloggindicatedthattrendsUnchangedhaveremainedrelativelysoft,andPepsiCoreportedmutedresultsforNABeveragesandlightvolumeforFrito.Further
3、tothispoint,thoughNielsenscannerdatasuggestsamodestForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandsequentialacceleration,categorygrowthremainschallenged.Specifically,CHPC-brandedearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2.salesdeclined-1.5%YoYinthemostrecent12W(vs.-1.7%in12Wprior),whilePackagedFoodbr
4、andedsalesdeclined-1.2%YoY(vs.-4.3%)andBeveragesgrew+0.4%YoY(vs.U.S.CHPC&Beverages-0.8%),beingthemostaffectedbytheEastercalendarshift.LaurenR.Lieberman…andaback-halfaccelerationseemsincreasinglylesslikely.Giventheslowstarttothe+12125263112year,oursensefollowingcalendar1Q17earningswasthatguidancefor
5、manynameslauren.lieberman@barclays.comrequiredameaningfulinflectionin2H17(ifnot4Q17inparticular).WithrespecttoBCI,USPackagedFood,aswediscussedinour05/12/17note(seeU.S.Food:StillTooMuchToDoU.S.FoodBy4Q?)investorscouldbefacedwithanoverlyoptimisticsetofgrowthexpectationsAndrewLazarheadinginto2H17.Byco
6、ntrast,whilewethinkmanyCHPC/Beveragecompaniesde-risked+12125264668EPSguidanceatthebeginningoftheyear(e.g.KO,PEP,NWL)andmorefavorablecurrencyandrew.lazar@barclays.comcouldprovideabitofacushion,frankly,wewouldnotbesurprisedifmoremutedcategoryBCI,USgrowthcontinuestoweighonexpectations.Notably,onits2Q1
7、7earningscallyesterday,J&Jexplicitlysaidthatitisnolongerexpectingback-halfaccelerationinglobalcategorygrowth.OtherTeamMembersKateGrafsteinInthefaceofdeterioratingfundamentalsandotherexternalfactors,we’vesee
