巴克莱-美股-美国消费金融行业-抵押品发起人和服务业2q17业绩预览-u.s. consumer finance mortgage originators and servicers 2q17 preview

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1、EquityResearch1August2017U.S.ConsumerFinanceINDUSTRYUPDATEMortgageOriginatorsandServicersU.S.ConsumerFinance2Q17PreviewNEUTRALUnchangedRemainingcautiousontheoriginators/servicersasagroup:WeremaincautiousonForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandtheearningsoutlookforWACandNSMsincetheyarerefi-heavyori

2、ginatorsandhigherearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseemortgageratesshouldtemperrefivolumes.Ontheotherhand,adeclineinMSRtableonpage2.amortizationintheservicingP&Lshouldbeapartialearningsoffsetifrefivolumesfall.U.S.ConsumerFinancePFSIisthemostattractiveoriginator:PFSIshouldbemoreinsulatedfromapullbac

3、kMarkC.DeVriesinrefivolumescomparedtoWACandNSMasapurchase-centricoriginator.While+12125269484marginswereweakin1Q,welookforareboundinmarginsin2Q.Additionally,wemark.devries@barclays.comexpectPennyMactocontinuetakingmarketshare,whichwillhelpdrivesteadyBCI,USearningsgrowth.EvanLeeModestbeatfromNRZ;OCN

4、dealappearsmeaningfullyaccretive:NRZreported2Q+12125262891earningsonMondaythatbeatconsensusestimate($0.53/shexaccountingadjustmentevan.lee@barclays.comBCI,USvs.$0.50/shconsensus).ManagementdiscussedadditionaldetailsregardingtheOCNdeal,includingachangetothesubservicingfeeto13bps(from26bps)whichweest

5、imatecouldadd~$0.10/shofquarterlyearningsaccretion.WeexpectNRZ’scoreearningstoremainquitestableandtherecouldbeupsidetothedividendlevelgoingforwardsupportedbythisOCNdeal.WerecappedNRZ’sresultshere:NRZ:2Q17InitialLook:ModestBeat;OCNDealAppearsMeaningfullyAccretivetoEarnings,7/31/’17.Wedon’texpectdras

6、ticBVmovesduring2Q:FluctuatinginterestrateshadMSRfairvaluemarksswingingwildlyduring2016,whichdrovesomevolatilebookvaluesinthespace.Interestrateswereonlymodestlydownduring2Q(10-yearTreasury-9bps),soweexpect2QFVmarkstobemoderate.ThevaluationmodelsofMSRassetsareincrediblycomplexsowedon’tincludeanyFVma

7、rksinourquarterlyforecastsandweexcludethemfromourCoreEPScalculations.Wesummarizeour2QEPSestimatesbelow:2QEPSSummaryForecastSource:BarclaysResearch,ThomsonReutersBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdo