瑞信-美股-美国人寿保险2q2017业绩预览-u.s. life insurance 2q17 preview - estimate & pt revisions

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1、17July2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchLifeInsuranceU.S.LifeInsuranceResearchAnalystsSECTORFORECASTJohnNadel2123254016john.nadel@credit-suisse.com2Q17Preview–Estimate&PTRevisionsWesleyCarmichael,CFA2123254148■DisconnectBetweenLifeandLong-TermRatesContinuestoWiden:wesley.carmicha

2、el@credit-suisse.comInanotepublishedJune15th(DisconnectBetweenLifeInsuranceStockMichaelWardPerformance&Long-TermRatesisWidening),weindicatedweviewedthe2123254323michael.a.ward@credit-suisse.comaveragelifeinsurancestockas7-9%overvalued.WemeasurednewmoneyyieldssincethenightofthePresiden

3、tialelectionandcomparedthatwithboththeS&P500andourstocks.Sincethenightoftheelection,theyieldontheCSLUCI7-10YearCorporateBondIndexhasrisenjust16bps,theS&P500isup15%andouraveragestockisup26%.Wecontinuetobelieveasignificantlybetterlong-termrateenvironmentisalreadydiscountedintoourcoverag

4、euniverse,andthusfundamentalupsideformostofthestocksinourcoverageismuted,inourview.■ModestEstimateandTargetPriceRevisions:Overall,our2017/18EEPSare1%abovecurrentconsensusatthemedian.For2Q17,thelargestoutliersrelativetoconsensusinclude:1)AIZwherewereducedourestimateforcatastrophelosses

5、,likelydrivingourabove-consensusestimate;2)AMPwhereweare3%aboveconsensuslikelyonstrengthof2QequitymarketreturnsandimpactonA&WMPTOIfromMarchFedhike;and3)RGAwhereweare3%aboveconsensuslikelyonaccretionfromrecentblockacquisitions.■METandBrighthouse:METandBHFbegintradingonawhen-issuedbasis

6、reflectiveoftheseparationonMonday,July17th.WeprovideestimatesofBVPSandEPSforbothentitiesonastand-alonebasisaswellasourthoughtsonvaluationranges.■MaintainOutperformonAMP,ATH,VOYA;UnderperformonAFL,PFG:WecontinuetoviewAMPasrelativelyinexpensivevs.sumoftheparts,withsolidleveragetoFedHike

7、sandstrongbalancesheet.VOYAalsoremainsafavoriteasweviewcurrentvaluationaslikelysufficienttopreventanymeaningfuldownsiderisktothestockonresults.AndwhilesomeinvestorshavegrownfrustratedatthelackofcapitaldeploymentatATHsincetheIPO,wecontinuetoviewtheuniverseofpotentialblocktargetsassigni

8、fican