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1、17July2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchAerospace&DefenseU.S.Aerospace&DefenseResearchAnalystsPRERESULTSCOMMENTRobertSpingarn2125381895robert.spingarn@credit-suisse.comQ2'17Aerospace&DefensePreviewJoseCaiado2123256771■CommercialOE:WhileQ2maybealittlelighterforBAgiv
2、entheMAXjose.caiado@credit-suisse.combuild-aheadand787-10testaircraft/blanksmovingthroughthelineJustinHarnett(makingthisamoreback-endweightedyearfortheairframer),thisshould2123253193justin.harnett@credit-suisse.comnothaveaffectedtheratesofsuppliershipments,whichcontinue
3、totrackknownproductionrates.Weexpectthesupplychaintobroadlyfeeltheimpactof777productioncontinuingtocomedown(to5/monthinAugust,thoughsuppliersshipahead),offsetatleastpartiallybyrising737/A320/A350production,thoughtheremaybesometimingdiscrepanciesbetweenthesedisparatemove
4、s.DespitethesofterQ2deliveries,westillexpectadecentquarterfromBA,withapossibleguidanceboostdrivenbystrongoperatingperformanceandbuyback.■Commercialaftermarket:Weexpectsolidaftermarketresultsacrosstheboardthisquarter,basedon1)impressivetrafficgrowthYTD(+8.6%thruMay),2)ge
5、nerallypositivecommentaryfromsuppliersattheParisAirShowthatsuggeststhestrongtrendsfromQ1appearedtocontinueintoQ2,consistentwithsolidQ1bookings,and3)theveryhighutilizationamongmajorMROproviders(shopsatornearcapacityleadinguptothesummermonths)shouldalsotranslatetoimprovin
6、gpricingtrends.■Bizjet:Inthechallengedbusinessaviationmarket,whileOEremainsdepressed,thehigherutilizationofolderplatformsshoulddrivesomeaftermarketgrowthforthisend-market.■Defense:2017guidancestilllooksconservativeformostcontractorsandweexpectguidanceincreasesacrosstheb
7、oardthisquarter.TheBig3(LMT,NOCandRTN)allappeartohavesomescopeforthis,buttheirsharepricescontinuetoflirtwithnewall-timehighs,andwefavorGDandLLLintotheprintinsteadgiventherelativeunderperformanceinthe~3monthssincethelastearningscycle,andthepotentialforgreaterupsidetoesti
8、mates.■Estimaterevisions:ForTGI,ourFY'18-'20EPSestimatesriseto$3.54/3.98/4.34,entirelydrivenbyourupdatedassump
