巴克莱-美股-医疗设施q2业绩预览-2017.7-u.s. health care facilities 2q17 preview updated reform expectations

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1、EquityResearch14July2017U.S.HealthCareFacilitiesINDUSTRYUPDATE2Q17Preview:UpdatedReformU.S.HealthCareFacilitiesExpectationsNEUTRALUnchangedThepoliticaldiscussionsaroundrepealandreplaceareongoing,withtheSenateU.S.HealthCareFacilitiesunveilingitslatestversionofthebillyesterday.InadditiontheSenaterema

2、insJoshuaR.Raskin,CFAcommittedtovotingonthebillnextweekfollowingaCBOscore(expectedonJuly17,+121252622792017).joshua.raskin@barclays.comBelowisasummaryofourkeytakewaysonthecurrentstatus:(i)EvenwitharevisedBCI,USSenatebill,therearestillseveralregulatoryhurdlestoovercome.(ii)TheleveloffundingRachanaFe

3、llingerprovidedintherevisedSenatebillishigherthanboththepreviousversionoftheSenate+12125263647billaswellastheHousebill,thoughstillbelowACAlevelfunding(iii)Immediaterachana.fellinger@barclays.commarketsentimentifabillisvotedintolegislationwilllikelybenegative(iv)However,BCI,USultimatelyrulewriting&i

4、mplementationofpolicychangeswilllikelymoderatetheNihalShahimpactofanylegislativechanges(aswasthecasewiththeAffordableCareAct)(v)As+12125264633aremindertheGOP’skeypriorityistolimittheroleofthegovernmentandreducenihal.shah@barclays.comhealthcarespending.BCI,USA.EarningsRelatedObservations:1)For2Q17,w

5、eareprojectingaveragefacilitiesMaryShangEBITDAgrowthof-2.9%,representingaslowdownrelativetothelevelsseenduring+12125262804mary.shang@barclays.comtheimplementationoftheACAandindustryconsolidation.2)WeexpectEBITDABCI,USmarginsforthehospitalgrouptobedown240bpsyearoveryearinthesecondquarter,withthebroa

6、derfacilitiesgroupexpectedtoseea280bpsdecrease.B.RevenueRelatedObservations:3)Weareprojectingconsolidatedrevenuegrowthof2.7%forourcoverageuniversein2Q17excludingEVHC.4)Thisyeartodatehasbeenrelativelybusywithreportsarounddivestitures/assetsalesandacquisitions.5)Ourhospitalmodelsassumea0.5%decreasein

7、same-storeadmissionsin2Q17;representinga118basispointsincreaseversusthe0.9%decreasein2Q16.6)Hospitalsshouldseeanegativeimpactfromthecalendarcomparisonin2Q17.7)Ourmodelsassumea3.1%increaseinrevenueperadjuste