巴克莱-美股-医疗业-关注税改-2017.7-u.s. health care-managed care 2q17 preview an eye on tax reform

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1、EquityResearch14July2017U.S.HealthCare-ManagedCareINDUSTRYUPDATE2Q17Preview:AnEyeonTaxReformU.S.HealthCare-ManagedCarePOSITIVEWeareinaveryfavorableenvironmentformanagedcarestocks,whereoperatingUnchangedresultsarebeingrevisedupward(weexpectanotherroundthisquarter),therearebroaderpotentialmacrob

2、enefits,andsentimentremainspositive.WebelievethatU.S.HealthCare-ManagedCarethecurrentdiscussionaroundhealthreformwillgivewaytotaxreform,providingJoshuaR.Raskin,CFAanothermaterialpositivecatalystforthemanagedcaresector.+12125262279Overtime,webelievethebenefitoftaxcutswillabate,duetothecompetiti

3、vejoshua.raskin@barclays.comBCI,USnatureoftheindustry.ButtheimmediateimpactwillbealargerpositiveformanagedcarethantheoveralleconomyandwhentaxreformreplaceshealthRachanaFellingerreformonthefrontpages,webelieveinvestorswilllookmorepositivelyonthis+12125263647group.rachana.fellinger@barclays.comB

4、CI,USA.KeyTrends:1)WeareforecastinganincreaseinoverallMLRsforthequartery/y.2)NihalShahDualEligibleenrollmentgrowthwasflatinJuneonasequentialbasis.3)Weprojecta+12125264633continuationofmoderatedcosttrendsandimprovedmarginsingovernmentnihal.shah@barclays.comsegments.4)Ourhospitalmodelsassumea0.5

5、%increaseinsame-storeadmissionsinBCI,US2Q17.5)Weexpectcompaniestocontinuesharebuybacksin2Q17,afterseveralinitiatedacceleratedsharerepurchaseprogramsin1Q17.MaryShang+12125262804B.OtherImportantTrends:6)Weexpectnetinvestmentincometocontinuetomary.shang@barclays.comrepresentahistoricallylowportio

6、nofaggregatenetincomein2017.7)JuneMedicareBCI,USAdvantageenrollmentgrowthwasup48.3Klivessequentially.8)TheJunedatashowsthatourcoveredcompaniesaretrackingbelowour2Q17estimates.9)MAenrollmentin2017appearstobetrackinginlinewithcompanyguidance.10)Withthebroadereconomyimproving,unemploymentcontinue

7、stoimproveaswell.C.OtherObservations:11)WeprojectSG&Aasapercentageofrevenuestodeclineonanannualbasisto13.8%for2017.12)IMSdatasuggestsmodestgrowthinsalesandscriptstrendforpharmaceuticalsin2Q17.13)Lookingatthemostrecentdata,therateofprice