德意志银行-美国日化产业-chemicals q2(junequarter) 2017 earnings preview-20170719-deutschebank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaIndustryDateUnitedStatesChemicals19July2017IndustrialsChemicals/SpecialtyResultsDavidBegleiterQ2(JuneQuarter)2017EarningsResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473Previewdavid.begleiter@db.comExpectsolidQ2resultsonhealthydemand,priceincreases.TopPick

2、:DD/DOWKatherineGriffinWeexpectUSchemicalstoreportpositiveJunequarterresultsdrivenbyi)ResearchAssociatehealthydemandintheUS,EuropeandAsia.Whiletherewereareasof(+1)212250-7265weaknessinthequarter,mostnotablyautoOEMdemand,thiswasmorethankatherine-a.griffin@db.comoffsetbysolidcon

3、sumerdemand(highlightedbystrongUSpolyethylenedemandinJune)andbroad-basedmanufacturinggrowthandii)DavidHuangimplementationofpriceincreasestooffsethigherrawmaterialcosts.OnResearchAssociateguidance,weexpectUSchemicalcompaniestobepositiveasdemandtrends(+1)904520-5307areexpectedto

4、stayhealthy,priceincreasearefullyimplementedandrawdavid-a.huang@db.commaterialcostsbegintodecline.OurtoppicksareDow/DuPontandAshland.GlobalGDPgrowthisexpectedtoacceleratefromto3.6%in’17from3.1%in’16DB’seconomicsteamforecastsUSGDPgrowthacceleratedto3.5%inQ2fromToppicks1.2%inQ1.

5、ForQ3,USGDPgrowthisforecastedtoslow3.0%assolidDowChemical(DOW.N),USD65.75Buyhousing/constructionactivity(housingstartsup12%YoYin‘17E)ispartiallyoffsetDuPont(DD.N),USD84.00Buybysluggishindustrialandmanufacturingactivity.InEurope,DB’seconomicsteamAshland(ASH.N),USD66.39Buyforeca

6、stsGDPgrowthdeclinedto1.9%inQ2from2.3%inQ1.ForQ3,EuropeGDPSource:DeutscheBankgrowthisforecastedtoslowto1.7%.China’sGDPgrew6.9%inQ2vsasimilar6.9%inQ1.For’17DB’seconomicsteamforecastsUSGDPgrowthof2.4%(vsChemicalssectortradingaboveits1.6%in’16),EuropeGDPgrowthof1.8%(vs1.7%in’16),

7、ChinaGDPgrowthofhistoricalmultiplesandthemarket6.7%(vs6.7%in’16)andglobalGDPgrowthof3.6%(vs3.1%in’16).TheUSChemicalssectoristradingat17.9xforwardEPS,a20%premiumtoits15-yearEthylenechainmarginsexpandinQ2average.ThesectorcurrentlytradesataUScontractethylenemarginsexpanded1.9c/lb

8、inQ2vsQ1to20.3c/lbonhigher5%discounttotheS&P500onforwardcontr