资源描述：
《德意志银行-中国-食品饮料行业-2017年3季度预览-20170908-deutsche bank-yumchina：3q17 preview》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchRatingCompanyDateHoldYumChina8September2017ForecastChangeAsiaChinaReutersBloombergExchangeTickerPriceat7Sep2017(USD)35.80ConsumerYUMC.NYUMCUSNYSYUMCPricetarget-12mth(USD)37.09Food&Beverage52-weekrange(USD)41.70-24.24S&P5002,4653
2、Q17previewAnneLingJohnChouResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036177(+852)22036196MaintainingHoldatatargetpriceofUSD37.09anne.ling@db.comjohn.chou@db.comWeexpectYUMCtoreportan18%riseinNPtoRMB225monthebackofa5%riseinsalestoUSD1.98bn.WeexpectKFC’sSSStoacc
3、eleratevs.2QdueBrettLevytothecontinuousmarketingcampaigninanimprovedmacroenvironment(Chinacateringsalesincreasedby11.9/11.1%forJun/Jul)andalowbaseinResearchAnalyst3Q16.Onthecostside,weexpectGPMtobemaintainedyoyandsavingsto(+1)212250-0739comefromoperationa
4、landothercosts,givenbetterstoreproductivity.Webrett.levy@db.comfine-tuneourforecastsandmaintainourHoldratingasitisfairlyvalued.KeychangesFor3Q17(Jun-Aug),weexpect18%riseinNPtoRMB225mThisisona5%riseinsalestoUSD1.98bn.WeexpectSSSgof5%forKFC,upTP36.61to37.09
5、↑1.3%from4%in2Q,as3Q16hadalowbase(affectedbytheSino-UStensiononSales(FYE)6,924to6,985↑0.9%theSouthSeadisputeinJul16).OnPH,weexpecta2%declineinSSS,duetoOpprof11.2to10.5↓-6.4%higherbaseandthecontinuingrevampingoftheoperation.margin(FYE)Netprofit595.6to565.1
6、↓-5.1%RevisingNPforecastforFY17/18/19(FYE)WereviseourFY17/18/19estimatesby-5%/-0.3%/+0.2%toreflectthelatestSource:DeutscheBankRMBtrend,revisitourEBITMassumption,andupdateourmodelbasedonitslatestsegmentbreakdown.Asaresult,ourrevisedtargetpriceisUSD37.09.Pr
7、ice/pricerelativeRaisingourtargetpriceby1%toUSD37.09;risks44OurprimaryvaluationmethodologyisDCF,employingCOEof9.2%,abetaof400.95andaTGRof2%.ThisproducesUSD37.09/share,implyinga2017/18P/E36of26x/23x.Upsiderisks:better-than-expectedoperatingmarginsandSSSg;3
8、2lower-than-expectedintensityincompetition;andlower-than-expectedlabor28costincreases.Downsiderisks:intensecompetition;changesinconsumer24preferences;failuretopassoncosthikestocustomers;andfailuretooptimize10/164/17
