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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaIndustryDateUnitedStatesMetals&Mining22June2017IndustrialsMetals&MiningForecastChangeJorgeBeristain,CFA3Q17Downstreamupdate:MoreResearchAnalyst(+1)203863-2381positiveSteels;Catalystsonhorizonjorge.beristain@db.comWeakperformanceaheadofsupportivetradepoli
2、ciescreatesbuyopportunityJeremyKliewerLMEaluminumandUSHot-RolledCoil(HRC)pricesfell4%and9%,ResearchAssociaterespectively,through2Q17.Similarly,ourDownstreamM&Mcoveragelost8%(+1)904527-6532asTrump'spro-growthagendaappearsincreasinglyhamstrungbyWashingtonjeremy.kliewer@db.compolitics.Despitethi
3、s,underlyingUSeconomicactivityappearspositive(apparentsteeldemandup4%YTD),withrisingimportsagainbeingthemainSathishKasinathanoverhang.Hence,supportivetradepolicyactionssuchasSection232,couldResearchAssociatebeacatalysttochangeinvestorperception.AgainsthigherDBealuminum(+1)203863-2358deckweupg
4、radeCENXfromSelltoHoldandonYTDpriceactionupgradesathish.kasinathan@db.comAKS(-39%YTD)andX(-36%)toBuysonupsidetounchangedPriceTargets.MorepositiveonSteels;Section232asyet,unquantifiablelikelypositiveKeyChangesYTD(throughMay)USapparentsteeldemandhasincreased4%YoY,CompanyTargetPriceRatinghighlig
5、htingunderlyingstrengthintheeconomy,butimportshavesurged14%overthesameperiod.Sectorleveltrendsremainpositive,withConstructionX.N-HoldtoBuyandAutomotivestrong,andEnergyrecovering.However,2Q17managementAA.N37.00to-44.00(USD)guidanceindicatesmarketconditionsdidnotaccelerateasmuchasexpected.AKS.N
6、-HoldtoBuyFurther,importshavebeenunusuallystrongaheadofexpectedSection232CENX.OQ10.00toSelltoHoldrulingfromtheDepartmentofCommerce.Webelieveunderlyingdemandwill15.00(USD)recoverandimportssubsideonceSection232isformerlyreleased(end-JuneSource:DeutscheBanklasttimeline)andsignedintolawbyPresiden
7、tTrumpsoonafter(between0and105days).WiththeupgradeofAKSteelandUSSteel,wenowhaveBuysToppicksonallSteel&ServiceCenterequitiescovered.Arconic(ARNC.N),USD25.32BuyAluminumrallynowexpectedtoholdsteady,DownstreamnamesstillfavoredKaiserAluminum(KALU.
