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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaPeriodicalDatePan-AsiaAsia-PacTelecom8September2017TelecommunicationsTrackerPeterMilliken,CFAEndingtheaffairResearchAnalyst(+852)22036190peter.milliken@db.comSectorunderperformanceleavesitatextremelevelsToppicksAfterayearof
2、chasinggrowth,wenowprefermarketleadersinmatureChinaMobile(0941.HK),HKD82.35Buymarkets.ManyoffersubstantialrealdividendandFCFyields,andtheselarge,SoftBank(9984.T),¥8,520BuyintegratedoperatorsaregenerallywellpositionedforcloudandIoTledgrowth,TelstraCorpora
3、tion(TLS.AX),AUD3.72Buywhichweexpectthemarkettograduallybecomeawareof,drivingmultipleHKTelecomTrust(6823.HK),HKD9.84Buyexpansion.WethinkitishardtogopastTelstra,ChinaMobile,HKT,SKSKTelecom(017670.KS),KRW251,500.00BuyTelecomandSingtelatthisstage(andalsoIde
4、a),andhaveskewedourmodelSource:DeutscheBankportfoliointhedirectionofsuchfirms,addingTelstraandHKT.GoodthingsstartingtohappenTelcoshaveretreated3%inthelast3M,givingupthepriorquarter’sgain,andconfirmingthesector’snarrowtradingrange.HoweverAsia-exJapangener
5、ated2%EBITDAgrowth,thesecondbestineightquarters,andcoincidingwithanotablemanagementshiftYTDinID,PH,TWandTHfromcompetitiontowardsprofitability.However,inthelastthreemonthssectorEPSforecastsfor2017havegenerallybeentrimmed.Weexpecttheprofitabilityfocustopre
6、vail.WesenseadrivetoliftprofitabilityandFCF,andnotethateveninHK,whichhasgotmorecompetitive,HKTwastalkingof“greenshoots”.WhileAU,IN,KRandSGhaveissues,wedoubttherealitywillreflectthedegreeofpunishmentthatmanyoftheirstockshaveendured.Wealsoseeeffortstoliftv
7、alueingeneral,asreflectedbyChinaMobile’sspecialdividend,ChinaUnicom’smixedownership,andHutchisonsellingitsfixedlineunit.(PleaseseeourJuly12FITT,M&ASpikeheraldstheValue-addedera,formore).Turning180degrees–therisknowisignoringvalue,wethinkHighyieldhaditsru
8、naftertheGFCthroughtoaround2015–soafterthatlongrally,shouldbeexpectedtolaguntilthenextdownturn.However,Mr.Marketalwaysasksdifficultquestions,inthiscase,bymakinghigh-yieldhigher,ormoresustainable.WeseerealdividendandFCFyiel
