德银-美股-化工商品行业-美国化工品出货量持平

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&5February2018IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsflat.EthaneKatherineGriffindown3c/galto25c/galResearchAssociate(+1

2、)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverageflat.Weeklyloadingsup0.4%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingswereflatinWeek#5(ended1/27/2018)vs.a2.1%decreasethepriorweek.LoadingsYTDaredownDavidHuang1.6%.Chemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemical

3、shipmentResearchAssociatetonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrendofbroader(+1)904520-5307chemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasureofweeklydavid-a.huang@db.comloadingsincreased0.4%YoY(versusa5.6%decreaseinthepriorweek)andincreased3.1%sequentially(vs.a6

4、.0%decreaseinthepriorweek).Ethanepricesdown3c/galto25c/gal.Propaneup4c/galto86c/galToppicksEthanepricesfell3.3c/gallastweekto25.3c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof19c/gal)withDowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD70.89Buyweakernaturalgasprices.WhileUSethanesupply/demandfundamentalsremainloose,Ashland(ASH.N),USD73.

5、87Buyethanerejection,whichpeakedat600kbpdin1H16,declinedfollowingthe2H16start-EastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD99.27Buyupofa200kbpdethaneexportfacilityinHouston.However,withdelaysinnewSource:DeutscheBankethylenecapacitycoupledwithgrowingamountsofassociatedgasrichoilandsteadyproductionofliquid

6、richshalegas,ethanerejectionisestimatedat~500kbpdinearlyWeeklyPricePerformance2018.Aswemovethroughtheyearandinto2019,weexpectthislongethanepositiontoerodeas4world-scaleethylenecrackersramp-upintheUSin2018-19(combinedOMNethanedemandof355kbpd).Asthemarkettightens,weexpectethanetotradetow

7、ardASHECLitshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelvalue,withthepremiumreflectingWLKPfractionation,transportationandstoragecosts.BasedonDB’s2018-19USnaturalgasMONpriceforecastsof$2.98/MMBtuand$3.10/MMBtu,respectively,weestimateUSethaneAXTAEMNpriceswillaverage30c/galin2018and31c/galin201