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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&13November2017IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsupKatherineGriffin5.3%.Ethaneup0.1c/galto26.9c/galResearchAssocia
2、te(+1)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+5.3%.Weeklyloadingsup6.1%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsincreased5.3%inWeek#45(ended11/04/2017)vs.a6.4%increasethepriorweek.LoadingsYTDareDavidHuangup0.9%.Chemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftota
3、lUSchemicalResearchAssociateshipmenttonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrend(+1)904520-5307ofbroaderchemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasuredavid-a.huang@db.comofweeklyloadingsincreased6.1%YoY(versusa2.1%increaseinthepriorweek)andincreased5.1%sequent
4、ially(vs.a2.6%decreaseinthepriorweek).ToppicksEthanepricesroughlyflatat27c/gal.Propaneup2c/lbto97c/galEthanepricesroseamodest0.1c/gallastweekto26.9c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueDowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD69.97Buyof21c/gal).WhileUSethanesupply/demand(s/d)fundamentalsremainloose,Ashland(ASH.N),USD66.01B
5、uyethanerejection,whichpeakedat500-600kbpdin1H16,hasdeclinedEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD90.75BuyfollowingtheSeptember’16start-upofEnterpriseProducts200kbpdethaneSource:DeutscheBankexportfacilityinHouston.StartinginQ4’17,weexpectUSethanes/dfundamentalstotightenfurther,drivenby600kbpdofnew
6、demandfromtheWeeklyPricePerformancestart-upof8greenfieldethylenecrackersin’17-’19.Asthemarkettightens,weexpectethanetotradetowarditshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelALBvalue,withthepremiumreflectingfractionation,transportationandstorageFMCcosts.BasedonDB’s’17USNaturalGaspriceforecas
7、tof$2.93/MMBtu,weFOEOLNestimateethanepriceswilllikelymovetoward30c/galbyyear-end‘17.APDLYBPropanepricesrose2c/lblastweekto97c/gal.WhilepropaneinventoriesWLKPweredown1%lastweekto77MMbbls,theyare18%and9%belowtheir3PXand5-yravgs,respectively.Longerterm,weexpectpropaneinventoriestoS&PCOM
