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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&22October2017IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsup4.7%.KatherineGriffinEthanedown
2、0.7c/galto25.8c/galResearchAssociate(+1)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+4.7%.Weeklyloadingsup6.2%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsincreased4.7%inWeek#42(ended10/14/2017)vs.a2.9%increasethepriorweek.Loadi
3、ngsYTDareDavidHuangup0.6%.Chemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemicalResearchAssociateshipmenttonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrend(+1)904520-5307ofbroaderchemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasuredavid-a.hu
4、ang@db.comofweeklyloadingsincreased6.2%YoY(versusa10.4%increaseinthepriorweek)anddecreased0.7%sequentially(vs.a1.5%decreaseinthepriorweek).ToppicksEthanepricesdown0.7c/galto25.8c/gal.Propanedown3.4c/lbto90.4c/galEthanepricesdeclined0.7c/gallastweekto25.
5、8c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof19DowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD71.18Buyc/gal).WhileUSethanesupply/demand(s/d)fundamentalsremainloose,Ashland(ASH.N),USD66.73Buyethanerejection,whichpeakedat500-600kbpdin1H16,hasdeclinedEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD88.82BuyfollowingtheSeptemb
6、er’16start-upofEnterpriseProducts200kbpdethaneSource:DeutscheBankexportfacilityinHouston.StartinginQ4’17,weexpectUSethanes/dfundamentalstotightenfurther,drivenby600kbpdofnewdemandfromtheWeeklyPricePerformancestart-upof8greenfieldethylenecrackersin’17-’1
7、9.Asthemarkettightens,weexpectethanetotradetowarditshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelPPGAXTAvalue,withthepremiumreflectingfractionation,transportationandstorageKROcosts.BasedonDB’s’17USNaturalGaspriceforecastof$2.93/MMBtu,weWLKPestimateethanepriceswi
8、llmovetoward30c/galbyyear-end‘17.FOEALBPropanepricesdeclined3.4c/lblastweekto90.4c/gal.WhilepropaneLYBinventorieswereflatlastweekat79MMbbls,theyare16%and9%belowFULSHWtheir3and5-yravgs,respectively.Longerterm,weexpectpropaneinvent
