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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&16October2017IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsup2.9%.KatherineGriffinEthanedown0.5c/galto26.5c/galResearchAssociate(+1)212250
2、-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+2.9%.Weeklyloadingsup10.4%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsincreased2.9%inWeek#41(ended10/07/2017)vs.a1.3%increasethepriorweek.LoadingsYTDareDavidHuangup0.5%.Chemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemicalResearchAssoc
3、iateshipmenttonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrend(+1)904520-5307ofbroaderchemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasuredavid-a.huang@db.comofweeklyloadingsincreased10.4%YoY(versusa1.3%increaseinthepriorweek)anddecreased1.5%sequentially(vs.a3.2%increaseinthepriorweek
4、).ToppicksEthanepricesdown0.5c/galto26.5c/gal.Propaneflatat94c/galEthanepricesdeclined0.5c/gallastweekto26.5c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof20DowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD71.43Buyc/gal).WhileUSethanesupply/demand(s/d)fundamentalsremainloose,Ashland(ASH.N),USD66.46Buyethanerejection,whichpeakedat500-600kbpdin1H16,has
5、declinedEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD88.65BuyfollowingtheSeptember’16start-upofEnterpriseProducts200kbpdethaneSource:DeutscheBankexportfacilityinHouston.StartinginQ4’17,weexpectUSethanes/dfundamentalstotightenfurther,drivenby600kbpdofnewdemandfromtheWeeklyPricePerformancestart-upof8greenfieldethylenec
6、rackersin’17-’19.Asthemarkettightens,weexpectethanetotradetowarditshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelVNTRHUNvalue,withthepremiumreflectingfractionation,transportationandstorageOMNcosts.BasedonDB’s’17USNaturalGaspriceforecastof$2.93/MMBtu,weKROestimateethanepriceswillmovetoward30c/galbyyear-end‘17
7、.MOSFOEPropanepriceswereflatlastweekat94c/gal.WhilepropaneinventorieswereFMCup1%lastweekto79MMbbls,theyare17%and9%belowtheir3and5-yrTSECCavgs,respectively.Longerterm,weexpectpropaneinventoriestodeclinedueCB
