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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&18February2018IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipments+0.2%.KatherineGriffinEthanedown1c/gal
2、to24c/galResearchAssociate(+1)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+0.2%.Weeklyloadingsup4.0%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingswereup0.2%inWeek#7(ended2/10/2018)vs.up0.9%inthepriorweek.LoadingsYTDaredown0.2%.DavidHua
3、ngChemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemicalshipmentResearchAssociatetonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrendofbroader(+1)904520-5307chemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasureofweeklydavid-a.huang@db.comloadingsincr
4、eased4.0%YoY(versusa2.2%increaseinthepriorweek)anddecreased5.0%sequentially(vs.a8.3%increaseinthepriorweek).Ethanepricesdown1c/lbto24c/gal.Propaneup1c/galto82c/galToppicksEthanepricesfell0.6c/gallastweekto24.0c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof17.1c/gal).WhileDowDuPont(DW
5、DP.N),USD71.95BuyUSethanesupply/demandfundamentalsremainloose,ethanerejection,whichpeakedAshland(ASH.N),USD72.24Buyat600kbpdin1H16,declinedfollowingthe2H16start-upofa200kbpdethaneexportEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD100.13BuyfacilityinHouston.However,withdelaysinn
6、ewethylenecapacitycoupledwithgrowingSource:DeutscheBankamountsofassociatedgasrichoilandsteadyproductionofliquidrichshalegas,ethanerejectionisestimatedat~500kbpdinearly2018.AswemovethroughtheyearandintoWeeklyPricePerformance2019,weexpectthislongethanepositiont
7、oerodeas4world-scaleethylenecrackersramp-upintheUSin2018-19(combinedethanedemandof355kbpd).Asthemarkettightens,weexpectethanetotradetowarditshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelTSEvalue,withthepremiumreflectingfractionation,transportationandstoragecosts.Based
8、OLNHUNonDB’s2018-19USnaturalgaspriceforecastsof$2.98/MMBtuand$3.10/MMBtu,ALBrespectively,weestimateUSethanepriceswillaverage30c/galin2018and31c/galinMOSEMN2019.Thiscomparesto24c/galin2017
