德银-美股-化工商品行业-美国化工品出货量下降2.1%

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&28January2018IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsdown2.1%.KatherineGriffinEthaneup1c/galto29c/galResearchAssociate(+1)2

2、12250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage-2.1%.Weeklyloadingsdown5.6%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsdecreased2.1%inWeek#4(ended1/20/2018)vs.a0.9%increasethepriorweek.LoadingsYTDareDavidHuangdown2.1%.Chemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemic

3、alResearchAssociateshipmenttonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrend(+1)904520-5307ofbroaderchemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasuredavid-a.huang@db.comofweeklyloadingsdecreased5.6%YoY(versusa6.7%increaseinthepriorweek)anddecreased6.0%sequentially(vs.a12.

4、9%increaseinthepriorweek).Ethanepricesup1c/galto29c/gal.Propanedown12c/galto82c/galToppicksEthanepricesrose0.8c/gallastweekto28.5c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof20.6c/gal)asDowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD77.02Buyethaneexportandcrackerdemandcontinuestorampup.WhileUSethaneAshland(ASH.N),USD72.43Buysupply/demand

5、fundamentalsremainloose,ethanerejection,whichpeakedat600kbpdEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD102.31Buyin1H16,declinedfollowingthe2H16start-upofa200kbpdethaneexportfacilityinSource:DeutscheBankHouston.However,withdelaysinnewethylenecapacitycoupledwithgrowingamountsofassociatedgasrichoilandsteadypr

6、oductionofliquidrichshalegas,ethanerejectionWeeklyPricePerformanceisestimatedat~500kbpdinearly2018.Aswemovethrutheyearandinto2019,weexpectthislongethanepositiontoerodeas4world-scaleethylenecrackersramp-upinTSEEMNtheUSin2018-19(combinedethanedemandof355kbpd).Asthemarkettightens,weMOSexpecte

7、thanetotradetowarditshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelvalue,withPPGthepremiumreflectingfractionation,transportationandstoragecosts.BasedonDB’sFMC2018-19USnaturalgaspriceforecastsof$2.98/MMBtuand$3.10/MMBtu,respectively,PXS&PCOMPweestimateUSethanepriceswilla