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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaPeriodicalDateUnitedStatesRailcar&3December2017IndustrialsChemicals/CommodityPetroChemicalDavidBegleiterUpdateResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5473david.begleiter@db.comUSChemicalShipmentsup3.6%.KatherineGriffinEthaned
2、own1c/galto25c/galResearchAssociate(+1)212250-7265Railcarloadings4-weekmovingaverage+3.6%.Weeklyloadingsdown0.5%katherine-a.griffin@db.comThe4-weekmovingavgofchemicalrailcarloadingsincreased3.6%inWeek#48(ended11/25/2017)vs.a4.1%increasethepriorweek.L
3、oadingsYTDareDavidHuangup1.0%.Chemicalrailcarloadingsrepresent20%oftotalUSchemicalResearchAssociateshipmenttonnage(followedbytrucks,barges,andpipelines),offeringatrend(+1)904520-5307ofbroaderchemicalindustryactivityanddemand.Themorevolatilemeasuredav
4、id-a.huang@db.comofweeklyloadingsdecreased0.5%YoY(versusa4.4%increaseinthepriorweek)anddecreased15.5%sequentially(vs.a4.2%increaseinthepriorweek).ToppicksEthanepricesdown1c/galto25c/gal.Propanedown2c/galto98c/galDowDuPont(DWDP.N),USD71.01BuyEthanepri
5、cesfell1.3c/galthisweekto24.6c/gal(vsitsfuelvalueof20c/gal).Ashland(ASH.N),USD73.50BuyWhileUSethanesupply/demand(s/d)fundamentalsremainloose,ethaneEastmanChemical(EMN.N),USD91.98Buyrejection,whichpeakedat500-600kbpdin1H16,hasdeclinedfollowingtheSourc
6、e:DeutscheBankSeptember’16start-upofEnterpriseProducts200kbpdethaneexportfacilityinHouston.Startingin1H’18,weexpectUSethanes/dfundamentalstoWeeklyPricePerformancetightenfurther,drivenby600kbpdofnewdemandfromthestart-upof8ASHgreenfieldethylenecrackers
7、in’17-’19.Asthemarkettightens,weexpectFOEethanetotradetowarditshistoricalpremiumof~10c/galvsitsfuelvalue,withHUNthepremiumreflectingfractionation,transportationandstoragecosts.BasedCMPonDB’s’17USNaturalGaspriceforecastof$3.02/MMBtu,weestimateMOSECLet
8、hanepriceswilllikelymovetoward30c/galbyyear-end‘17.S&PCOMPPropanepricesfell2.3c/galthisweekto97.8c/gal.WhilepropaneinventoriesPOTWLKPweredown1%lastweekto73MMbbls,theyare21%and12%belowtheir3EMNand5-yravgs,respectively.Longerterm,weexpectpropaneinvento
