j.p. 摩根-美股-石油行业-2018美国石油服务与设备行业展望：基本面看跌，但负面修正周期仍在隐现

《j.p. 摩根-美股-石油行业-2018美国石油服务与设备行业展望：基本面看跌，但负面修正周期仍在隐现》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Completed13Dec201705:32AMESTDisseminated13Dec201705:32AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch13December20172018OilServices&EquipmentOutlookAWatchedPotNeverBoils:LessBearishonFundamentals,ButNegativeRevisionsCycleStillLoomsOilServicesandEquipmentACSeanCMeakim,CFA(1-212)622-6684sean.meakim@jpmorgan.co

2、mBloombergJPMAMEAKIMJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJustinWHawkins(1-212)622-5248justin.w.hawkins@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCThomasHotchkiss,CFA(1-212)622-2201thomas.c.hotchkiss@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCVibhavZutshi(1-212)622-9398vibhav.zutshi@jpmorgan.comAfteralatesurgeonthebac

3、kofOPEC’scutledoilservicesstockstooutperformtheJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedS&Pin2016,expectationsdeflatedquicklythisyearandmanycurrentlysitnear10-yearlowsdespiteatwo-yearhighforoil.Whatgives?2017’sbeatsandraiseswereWearehostingaconferencecallonunderminedbynegativerevisionsfor2018asthemarket

4、begantoembraceourrange-Friday,December15that10amETonboundviewonoil.ThetraditionalcorrelationbetweenoilandtheOSXhasbrokenour2018OutlookalongwithourU.S.Energycolleagues.downasaresult(atleasttotheupside).Giventheresetinthestocks,we’relessbearishthanwe’vebeensincelaunchingcoverage.Yetthebullcase

5、doesn’tquiteresonateasConferenceCall:stubbornlyelevatedStreetexpectationshavepushedrightmorethanproperlyJPM2018EnergyOutlookrecalibrate;asaresult,we’refocusedonidiosyncraticopportunities,particularlythoseHostedby:weseeasenablersofwhatweexpecttoremainaseculardeflationarycycle.SeanMeakim,CFAOi

6、lServicesEquityAnalystOFShasmassivelyunderperformedwhileoilmacrohasimprovedconsiderably.PhilGresh,CFATheOSXhaslaggedtheS&Pby-45%YTDasbuy-sideexpectationsfor2018beganIntegrated&RefiningEquityAnalystwellabovetheStreetandmovedmateriallylower.Meanwhile,oildemandgrowthArunJayaramExploration&Produ

7、ctionEquityAnalystaccelerated,OPEC-plus’sdevotiontoproductionlimitshasbeenexceptionalandshaleJeremyTonet,CFAisbeinghemmedinbyinvestorfrustrationandfesteringexecutionchallenges.2018MLPEquityAnalystconsensuslooksachievableonthecurrentpricedeck(withaf