credit - china property

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1、CreditabcChinaPropertyGlobalResearchChinaPropertyChinapropertyUSDhigh-yieldissuancetoreachUSD10bnin1Q14eandUSD15bn+for2014e,drivenby1Q14outlook:Front-endloadedUSDrepeatissuersbondissuancetolimitcapitalupsideBalancesheetliquidityofdevelopersinourcoverageuniverseremainsa

2、dequatein2014,despiteactivelandacquisitionsin2013(up90%y-o-ytoUSD110bn)BuyGRNLHK’16,GZRFPRandSHIMAOamongBB-ratednamesforbenchmark-focusedinvestors;B-ratednamesofferexcessivecreditspreads–buyCIFIHG,FTHDGR,FUTLAN,KAISAGandYUZHOUGetreadyforanotherrecordyearofnewissuanceWeb

3、elieveUSDhigh-yieldbondissuancefromtheChinapropertysectorwillsetanewrecordin2014,drivenbyrepeatissuers.Inparticular,weforeseeUSD10bnofnewissuancein1Q14,skewedtowardsJanuary,giventheLunarNewYearholidaysinend-January/firsthalfofFebruary.Debutbondissuers,inourview,shouldmai

4、nlycomefromtheIPOpipeline,butmostare“13%-yielders”,inourview,withtheiroperating11December2013scalebeingmuchsmallerthanbenchmarkBBnamesintheKeithChanoffshorebondspace.AnalystTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedGiventheexpectedheftyandfront-endloadednewissuance+

5、8522822-4522keithkfchan@hsbc.com.hkcalendarinChinaproperty,webelievecapitalupsideonUSDLandyLanbondsinthesector,ifany,willbecapped.WeexpectthesectorAssociateasawholetomovesidewaysin1Q14;hence,creditselectionisTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedimportant.Thebig

6、gestrisks,inourview,remainpolicy+85239417186lanlan@hsbc.com.hktightening,andmoreimportantly,theavailabilityofmortgagefinancingfromthebankingsystem.ViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.comInthiscompendium,weincludeourtwo-page2014outlookon50Chinapropertydevelo

7、persunderourcoverageacrossIssuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingthewholecreditspectrum,fromBBBdowntoCCC.CorporationLimitedDisclaimer&DisclosuresThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformsp

8、artofitCreditabcChinaProperty11December2013ContentsChinaProperty3HopsonDevelopment66Keythemesin1Q143Kai