China_Property_-_Survival_of_the_Fittest

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1、EquityResearchANCHORREPORTChinaproperty:SurvivalofthefittestFundamentalsbackinthelimelight;August7,2012qualitydeveloperswithstrongexecutionResearchanalystsabilityshouldprevailChinaPropertyAlvinWong-NIHKalvin.wong@nomura.comAgainstadifficultoperatingenvironmentunderHP

2、Rpolicy,China’s15+85222521563largestdevelopersincreasedtheirmarketsharefrom13.1%in2011toJianpingChen-NIHK18.5%in1H12.Togetherwiththeoverall1H12salesrebound,webelievejianping.chen@nomura.comthissuggeststhatfundamentalhousingdemandremainsstrong.+85222522139Better-than-

3、expectedcontractedsalesYTDshouldbodewellforourKenLuo-NIHKforecastedFY11-14FcoreprofitCAGRof18.9%,althoughtherewilllikelyken.luo@nomura.combesomemargincompressioninFY12/13F.+85222521421WeraiseourTPsby16%onaverage.OurnewTPsimply33%NAVdiscountand9.7x2012FP/E,versusthese

4、ctor’shistoricalaveragesof28%NAVdiscountand11.2xP/E.Toppicks:CRL,ShimaoandCOGO.Keyanalysisinthisanchorreportincludes:Ourstudyof1sttiercitiesshowsstrongself-occupancydemand.Improvingincome/risingM2suggestthesector’sturningpointhasalreadyoccurredin2Q12.Weraiseourful

5、l-year2012Fvolumeforecastto+2%from-10%y-y.SeeAppendixA-1foranalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnon-USanalysts.ChinapropertyEQUITYRESEARCHPROPERTYANCHORREPORT:SurvivalofthefittestAugust7,2012Fundamentalsbackinlimelight;qualitydeveloperswithstrongexe

6、cutionabilityshouldprevailAction:Strengthtoriseabovepolicy–StructuralBUYAnchorthemesWhilesomeinvestorsmaythinkthatChina’shousingmarketisdominatedThesalesrecoveryin1H12byinvestment/speculativedemand,weviewthesalesreboundin1H12evidencedthestrengthinundertheHPRpolicyast

7、hemostconvincingevidenceregardingourviewfundamentaldemandinChina.ofstrongfundamentaldemand.WithsectorgrowthmomentumsettoAgain,developerswithbetternormalize,leadingdevelopers(top15)withbetterexecutioncapability/executionandproductqualityproductqualitycontinuedtogainma

8、rketshare,from13.1%in2011toshouldcontinuetogainmarket18.5%in1H12.Toechoourlastanchorreport‘Strengthtoriseaboveshare,whichisnowhappe