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1、GMOWhitePaPerJanuary2013FeedingtheDragon:WhyChina’sCreditSystemLooksVulnerableEdwardChancellorandMikeMonnelly*PrologueForGMO’sassetallocationteam,valuationsareourfirstprotectionagainstlosses.Wegenerallybelievethatcheaperassetsaremoreresilientagainstbadeconomi
2、candfinancialevents,andthatifwefocusonavoidingtheovervaluedassets,weshouldnotonlyachievehigherreturnsovertime,butmoreoftenthannotdolessbadlywhenmarketsencounterdifficulty.Fromavaluationperspective,Chineseequitiesdonot,atfirstglance,looktobealikelycandidatefor
3、trouble.ThePEratiosareeither12or15timesonMSCIChina,dependingonwhetheryouincludefinancialsornot,andthemarkethasunderperformedMSCIEmergingbyabout10%overthelastthreeyears(endingDecember31,2012).Neitherofthesecharacteristicsscreams“bubble.”Andyet,Chinahasbeenasou
4、rceofworryforusoverthepastthreeyearsandcontinuestobeone,affectingnotmerelyourbehaviorwithregardstostocksdomiciledinChinabuttheentireemergingworld,aswellassomespecificdevelopedmarketstocks,whichwebelieveareparticularlyvulnerableshouldthingsinChinagodowntheroad
5、wefearitmight.Chinascaresusbecauseitlookslikeabubbleeconomy.Understandingthesekindsofbubblesisimportantbecausetheyrepresentasituationinwhichstandardvaluationmethodologiesmayfail.JustasfinancialstocksgaveafalsesignalofcheapnessbeforetheGFCbecausethecreditbubbl
6、epushedtheirearningswellabovesustainablelevelsandmaskedtheriskstheyweretaking,sosomevaluationmodelsmayfailinthefaceofthecredit,realestate,andgeneralfixedassetinvestmentboominChina,sinceithasgoneonlongenoughtowarpthemodels’estimationofwhat“normal”is.Ourfearsha
7、venotstoppedusfrombuyingemergingstocks,orindeedsomeChinesestocks,buttheyhavetemperedourpositionsrelativetowhattheywouldbeifwewerenotconcernedaboutthebubblyaspectsofChina.Becausethisviewhasarealeffectonourportfolios,itisimportantforustocontinuetoupdateourworkt
8、omakesurewearen’tmissingsomethingimportant.TherecentapparentstrengtheningoftheChineseeconomyisapotentialchallengetoourthesis,andasaresult,Edwardandothersatthefirmhavebeenworkinghardtounde
