20130226-Macquarie-China and HK Property

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1、ChinaandHKProperty1.MacroandstatisticsDavidNgandteamMacquarieCapitalSecuritiesLimitedFebruary2013DavidNg+85239221291David.ng@macquarie.comCallumBramah+85239224731Callum.Bramah@macquarie.comJeffreyGao+862124129026Jeffrey.gao@macquarie.comRaymondLiu+85239223629Raymond.liu@macquarie.comKaiTan+8523922

2、3720Kai.tan@macquarie.comInpreparingthisresearch,wedidnottakeintoaccounttheinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationandparticularneedsofthereader.Beforemakinganinvestmentdecisiononthebasisofthisresearch,thereaderneedstoconsider,withorwithouttheassistanceofanadviser,whethertheadviceisappropriateinlig

3、htoftheirparticularinvestmentneeds,objectivesandfinancialcircumstances.Pleaseseedisclaimer.Page1TableofContentsChinaMacro4Realestateinvestment6GFAstarts,underconstruction,sold12GFAforecasts14Landsales16Lending22PMI34HongKongMacro38GDP40Demography42Retailsales44Visitorarrivals46Macauga

4、mingrevenue48Hiringintentions50Loandepositratio52Mortgagedrawndown54Page2TableofContentsHongKongMacro(Cont’d)ApprovalsandLTV56Propertysalesbymainlanders58Statistics62Macrostatistics64Constructionandlandsale66Bankloanstatistic68MacquarieforecastsPage3ChinaMacroPage4ChinaMacroPage5ChinaPr

5、operty–realestateinvestmentResidentialrealestateinvestmentinJanuary-December2012ofRmb4,937bnYoYgrowthof11%DecemberYoYgrowthof7%NovemberYoYgrowthof22%Downfromapeakof38%inJuly2011Residentialrealestateinvestmentin2012ofRmb4.94trnYoYgrowthof11%Growthin2011of30%Growthin2010of33%Realestateinve

6、stmentinDecember2012ofRmb703bn,up12%YoYRealestateinvestmentin2012ofRmb7.18trn,up16%YoYEquivalentto22%ofnominalGDPgrowthin2012,or1.70pptExcludingaffordablehousinginvestment,weexpecttoseesingledigitgrowthinrealestateinvestmentin2013Page6ChinaProperty–realestateinvestment50%PeriodbetweenJun2010ton

7、owPeriodbetweenJun2007-Dec200945%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%JunAugOctDecFebAprJunAugOctDecFebAprJunAugOctDecSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,January2013Page7ChinaProperty–realestateinvestment–breakdownConstructionspe