基于混合藤Copula模型的多风电场出力相关性建模及其在电力系统经济调度中的应用

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1、TM74621.3CopulaOClassifiedIndex:TM74U.D.C:621.3SouthwestJiaotongUniversityMasterDegreeThesisMODELINGOFMULTIPLEWINDFARMSOUTPUTCORRELATIONBASEDONMIXEDCOPULAANDITSAPPLICATIONONPOWERSYSTEMECONOMICDISPATCHGrade:2015Candidate:QiuYibinAcademicDegreeAppliedfor:MasterofScienceinEngineeringSpeciality:E

2、lectricalEngineeringSupervisor:Prof.LiQiApril,20181ARMAIEEE302K-meansCopulaCopulaCopula3CopulaIEEE30K-meansCopulaAbstractWindenergyisakindofwidelydistributed,renewableandnon-pollutinggreenenergy.Thereishugepotentialforusingwindenergytogenerateelectricity.Theutilizationofwindpowercaneffectivel

3、yalleviatetheenergycrisisandenvironmentalpollution.However,theactivepowerofthewindfarmissubjecttothewindspeed,anditwillexhibitcertainrandomcharacteristics.Becauseofthemutualgeographicalproximityofthewindfarmsinthesameregion,theactivepoweroutputofmultiplewindfarmswillexhibitcertainpositivecorr

4、elationcharacteristics.Thesecharacteristicsofwindpowergenerationlimitthefurtherdevelopmentandutilizationofwindenergy.Withaviewtobetterdevelopingandutilizingwindenergy,thispaperwillbeginresearchandexplorationonthecorrelationbetweenwindpoweroutputs.Theworkisdescribedasfollows:(1)Usingamethodcom

5、biningARMAmodelandtime-shifttechnologytogeneraterelevantwindspeedstoobtainwindpoweroutputwithhigh-to-lowcorrelation,itisbroughtintotheIEEE30nodesystemtocarryoutthecalculationofnode-voltageprobabilisticloadflowandreactivepowercompensationanalysisofthepowersystem.Inordertoanalyzetheimpactofdiff

6、erentcorrelationwindspeedonthepowersystem.Thesimulationresultsshowthatthecorrelationofwindspeedhasagreatinfluenceonthefinalprobabilisticpowerflowcalculationresults.Whenthewindpoweroutputcorrelationlevelishigh,thepowersystemnodevoltagehasalargerfluctuationrange;fordifferentrelateddegreesofwind

7、powergenerationInthiscase,thenumberofcompensatingcapacitorgroupsrequiredtoobtainthesametargetvalueforreactivepoweroptimizationisslightlydifferent.Thehigherthedegreeofcorrelation,themorereactivecompensatingcapacitorgroupsarerequired.(2)Inorder