基于混合藤Copula模型的多风电场出力相关性建模及其在电力系统经济调度中的应用

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1、TM74621.3CopulaOClassifiedIndex:TM74U.D.C:621.3SouthwestJiaotongUniversityMasterDegreeThesisMODELINGOFMULTIPLEWINDFARMSOUTPUTCORRELATIONBASEDONMIXEDCOPULAANDITSAPPLICATIONONPOWERSYSTEMECONOMICDISPATCHGrade:2015Candidate:QiuYibinAcademicDegreeAppliedfor:Maste

2、rofScienceinEngineeringSpeciality:ElectricalEngineeringSupervisor:Prof.LiQiApril,20181ARMAIEEE302K-meansCopulaCopulaCopula3CopulaIEEE30K-meansCopulaAbstractWindenergyisakindofwidelydistributed,renewableandnon-pollutinggreenenergy.Thereishugepotentialforusing

3、windenergytogenerateelectricity.Theutilizationofwindpowercaneffectivelyalleviatetheenergycrisisandenvironmentalpollution.However,theactivepowerofthewindfarmissubjecttothewindspeed,anditwillexhibitcertainrandomcharacteristics.Becauseofthemutualgeographicalpro

4、ximityofthewindfarmsinthesameregion,theactivepoweroutputofmultiplewindfarmswillexhibitcertainpositivecorrelationcharacteristics.Thesecharacteristicsofwindpowergenerationlimitthefurtherdevelopmentandutilizationofwindenergy.Withaviewtobetterdevelopingandutiliz

5、ingwindenergy,thispaperwillbeginresearchandexplorationonthecorrelationbetweenwindpoweroutputs.Theworkisdescribedasfollows:(1)UsingamethodcombiningARMAmodelandtime-shifttechnologytogeneraterelevantwindspeedstoobtainwindpoweroutputwithhigh-to-lowcorrelation,it

6、isbroughtintotheIEEE30nodesystemtocarryoutthecalculationofnode-voltageprobabilisticloadflowandreactivepowercompensationanalysisofthepowersystem.Inordertoanalyzetheimpactofdifferentcorrelationwindspeedonthepowersystem.Thesimulationresultsshowthatthecorrelatio

7、nofwindspeedhasagreatinfluenceonthefinalprobabilisticpowerflowcalculationresults.Whenthewindpoweroutputcorrelationlevelishigh,thepowersystemnodevoltagehasalargerfluctuationrange;fordifferentrelateddegreesofwindpowergenerationInthiscase,thenumberofcompensatin

8、gcapacitorgroupsrequiredtoobtainthesametargetvalueforreactivepoweroptimizationisslightlydifferent.Thehigherthedegreeofcorrelation,themorereactivecompensatingcapacitorgroupsarerequired.(2)Inorder