穆迪-2017q4中国影子银行监测报告

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1、QuarterlyChinaShadowBankingMonitorFEBRUARY,2018QuarterlyChinaShadowBankingMonitor1.KeyMessages2.CreditConditions(a)LiquidityConditions3.CompositionandTrendsofShadowBanking(a)WealthManagementProducts(b)TrustSector4.InterconnectednessandSpilloverRiskstoBanks5.TheGrowthofe-finance6.Reg

2、ulatoryUpdates&MarketEventsAppendix:Glossary,NotesonEstimates&DataSourcesQuarterlyChinaShadowBankingMonitor,February201821KeyMessagesKeyMessages»Totalshadowbankingassetsbarelygrewin2017.Assetsincreasedatonetenthoftheamountofthepreviousyear–anincreaseofRMB1.1trillioncomparedwithRMB11

3、.2trillionin2016.ShadowbankingalsodeclinedasapercentageofGDP,fallingto79.3%attheendof2017,comparedtoapeakof86.7%ayearearlier.»Intensifiedregulationishavingagrowingimpactacrosstheshadowbankingsector.Whatstartedasaregulatorycrackdownonsomepreviouslyfast-growingshadowbankingsegments,su

4、chasbanks’wealthmanagementproducts(WMPs)andnonbankfinancialinstitutions’(NBFIs)assetmanagementplans,hasspreadtoothermajorcoreshadowbankingcomponents.Inparticular,theaggregategrowthofentrustedloans,trustloansandundiscountedbankers’acceptanceshasslowedduetotightenedoversight.Thiswillf

5、urtherconstrainbroadshadowbankinggrowthin2018andreduceitscontributiontototalsocialfinancing(TSF)flows.»Theeffectofintensifiedregulationisnolongerjustonde-riskingthefinancialsector,butitisnowbeginningtoimpactthesupplyofcredittotherealeconomy.Enhancedregulationinitiallyfocusedontheinc

6、reasinginterconnectednessbetweenbanksandshadowbanks,targetinginparticularthebuildupofleverageinthefinancialsector.ThesemeasureshavesuccessfullyreducedtheshareofWMPsheldbyinterbankinvestorsandbanks’netclaimsonNBFIsinthepastsixmonths.However,morerecentmeasurestargetcoreshadowbankingac

7、tivitieswhichhavebeenanincreasingsourceofcreditsupplytotherealeconomyin2017.Thesemeasuresarelikelyreducethesupplyofcredittomoremarginalborrowerswhichhavebeenmostdependentonshadowfinance.Inconsequence,refinancingrisksareincreasingforsomesectorssuchaspropertydevelopers,localgovernment

8、financialvehicles(L