穆迪中国影子银行监测报告China shadow banking monitor Q4 2017

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1、QuarterlyChinaShadowBankingMonitorFEBRUARY,2018QuarterlyChinaShadowBankingMonitor1.KeyMessages2.CreditConditions(a)LiquidityConditions3.CompositionandTrendsofShadowBanking(a)WealthManagementProducts(b)TrustSector4.InterconnectednessandSpilloverRiskstoBanks5.TheGrowthofe-finance6.Regula

2、toryUpdates&MarketEventsAppendix:Glossary,NotesonEstimates&DataSourcesQuarterlyChinaShadowBankingMonitor,February201821KeyMessagesKeyMessages»Totalshadowbankingassetsbarelygrewin2017.Assetsincreasedatonetenthoftheamountofthepreviousyear–anincreaseofRMB1.1trillioncomparedwithRMB11.2tril

3、lionin2016.ShadowbankingalsodeclinedasapercentageofGDP,fallingto79.3%attheendof2017,comparedtoapeakof86.7%ayearearlier.»Intensifiedregulationishavingagrowingimpactacrosstheshadowbankingsector.Whatstartedasaregulatorycrackdownonsomepreviouslyfast-growingshadowbankingsegments,suchasbanks

4、’wealthmanagementproducts(WMPs)andnonbankfinancialinstitutions’(NBFIs)assetmanagementplans,hasspreadtoothermajorcoreshadowbankingcomponents.Inparticular,theaggregategrowthofentrustedloans,trustloansandundiscountedbankers’acceptanceshasslowedduetotightenedoversight.Thiswillfurtherconstr

5、ainbroadshadowbankinggrowthin2018andreduceitscontributiontototalsocialfinancing(TSF)flows.»Theeffectofintensifiedregulationisnolongerjustonde-riskingthefinancialsector,butitisnowbeginningtoimpactthesupplyofcredittotherealeconomy.Enhancedregulationinitiallyfocusedontheincreasingintercon

6、nectednessbetweenbanksandshadowbanks,targetinginparticularthebuildupofleverageinthefinancialsector.ThesemeasureshavesuccessfullyreducedtheshareofWMPsheldbyinterbankinvestorsandbanks’netclaimsonNBFIsinthepastsixmonths.However,morerecentmeasurestargetcoreshadowbankingactivitieswhichhaveb

7、eenanincreasingsourceofcreditsupplytotherealeconomyin2017.Thesemeasuresarelikelyreducethesupplyofcredittomoremarginalborrowerswhichhavebeenmostdependentonshadowfinance.Inconsequence,refinancingrisksareincreasingforsomesectorssuchaspropertydevelopers,localgovernmentfinancialvehicles(L