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1、China:AStrategist’sDiary–1July2013EquityStrategyInvestmentStrategy
2、China01July2013Shadowbankingupdate,twosignposts,issueNo.1DavidCui>>+85225366477StrategistMerrillLynch(HongKong)¢Weeklyupdate,aimingtoidentifytwokeysignpostsdavid.cui@baml.comTherecentShiborhikehasheigh
3、tenedinvestors’concernsabouttherisksrelatedTracyTian,CFA>>+85221617632totheshadowbankingsector.It’souropinionthatthesectoristheweakestlinkinStrategistMerrillLynch(HongKong)thewholefinancialsystemandmayturnouttobeatriggerofaneventualmarkettracy.tian@baml.comcapitulatio
4、n.Asaresult,goingforward,wewillprovideaweeklyupdateonwhat’sgoingonintheindustry,includingkeyevents,datapointsandourinterpretations.Ouraimistotrytoidentifytwokeysignposts:whatwecallthechange-of-perceptioneventandthebackstop-at-any-costevent.Byourassessment,theformerwil
5、llikelyrepresentthestartofamajormarketsell-off,whilethelatter,agenuinebottomofthemarketforthiscycle.WhyshadowbankingistheweakestlinkGrowthoftheshadowbankingsectorhasbeensuper-chargedoverthepasttwoyearsorso.Moreover,riskcontrolisgrosslyinadequateinouropinion:banksandot
6、herfinancialinstitutionsactivelyseekrisksusingotherpeople’smoney(aswearguedearlier,theincentiveschemeofWMPsisworsethanCDO’s);theregulatoryframeworkistooconvolutedtobeeffective(e.g.,wehavefourregulatorsoftheWMPmarket);meanwhile,wehaveaninvestorbasethatisunawareofthehid
7、denrisksingeneral.WebelievethattherecentPBoC-engineeredliquiditycrunchisatleastpartlyduetothecentralbank’sfrustrationwithitsinabilitytotamecreditexpansionintheshadowbankingsector.Thelikelyroadmap&thetwosignpostsGiventhenatureofshadowbanking,i.e.nolenderoflastresortand
8、numerouscreditprovidersdrivenbygreedandfear,it’smucheasiertohaveabankruninthissegmentofthefinancialmarketthanonbanks.Thetriggerisoftenaneventthatfundamentallyaltersinvestors’riskperception-inhindsight,thedefaultby¢FirstissueofaweeklyupdateonChina’sshadowbankingsectorB
9、earStearns’twosubprimebondfundsdidjustthat.InChina,welooktoapotential“unexpected”trustorbonddefaultbyanLGFVordeveloperasa¢To
