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1、GLOBALWhatcaughtmyeye?v.80JapanDebtMountain:doesitmatter?InthisissueweaskwhetherJapan’sdebtmountainhasanymeaningforeitheritsownfutureorforglobalinvestmentstrategies.Foralmost25years,Japan’sdebtburdenhasbeentheposterchildofwhatwouldhappentoothersifcapitalismisallocated,bubblesburst
2、andthenclearanceandrequiredreformsareeitherdelayedornotimplemented.Indeed,atmorethan5xGDP,Japanisshoulderingagreaterdebtburdenthanotherkeyjurisdictions.Itisalsofacingseveredemographicchallenges,whileitslabourmarketremainsconstrainedandthestatemaintainsaswayovertheprivateInsidesect
3、or.SinceWWII,JapanhasalwaysbeenmorestatistthanmostothermajorWhyisDebtMountainnotcrushingJapan?2economies,withKoreaandChinasubsequentlyfollowingJapanindevelopingaCorporates&competitiveness–inrudesimilarmodel.TheconventionalargumenthasbeenthatJapan’sdebtwouldhealth7ultimatelycrushit
4、seconomyandseverelycrimppublicsectorspending,whileGloballessonsfromJapan–futureisRed11theprivatesectorwouldbeunabletoadjust,andhencelosecompetitiveness.Japanequities–ROEsvsvaluation13Eventually,theprivatesectormightloseconfidenceandstoprepatriatingcashAppendices15andthecountrywoul
5、dthensufferfrommassivecapitaloutflows.Japan–NationaldebttoGDP(%)Notonlywerethesedireprojectionswrongfordecades,butastherestoftheworldjoinedJapaninsecularstagnationandunorthodoxmonetarypolicies,itis600%nolongerperceivedasanexceptionbutratherasapointertothefuture.Japan’s530%500%succ
6、essinnavigatingdisruption,deepfinancializationandpermanent250%400%overcapacityisnowstudiedandimitated.Whiletherearelocalnuances,Japanshowsthewayforward.QEsassociatedwiththeFedwereinventedinJapan300%morethanadecadeearlier.Thesameappliestofiscalstimuli,collapsingvelocity200%ofmoneya
7、ndstrongdisinflation.Whateverarethepolicies,Japanhasalready100%triedthem.Japanisfarmoreadvancedinfullymonetizingitsdebtbyutilizing0%multipleassetclasses,frombondstoequities.Italsoacceptsthatnormalization9809829849869889909929949969980000020040060080100120140161111111111222222222is
8、notfeasible,andunliketheFed,ithas
