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1、GLOBALWhatcaughtmyeye?v.80JapanDebtMountain:doesitmatter?InthisissueweaskwhetherJapan’sdebtmountainhasanymeaningforeitheritsownfutureorforglobalinvestmentstrategies.Foralmost25years,Japan’sdebtburdenhasbeentheposterchildofwhatwouldhappentoothersifcapital
2、ismisallocated,bubblesburstandthenclearanceandrequiredreformsareeitherdelayedornotimplemented.Indeed,atmorethan5xGDP,Japanisshoulderingagreaterdebtburdenthanotherkeyjurisdictions.Itisalsofacingseveredemographicchallenges,whileitslabourmarketremainsconstr
3、ainedandthestatemaintainsaswayovertheprivateInsidesector.SinceWWII,JapanhasalwaysbeenmorestatistthanmostothermajorWhyisDebtMountainnotcrushingJapan?2economies,withKoreaandChinasubsequentlyfollowingJapanindevelopingaCorporates&competitiveness–inrudesimila
4、rmodel.TheconventionalargumenthasbeenthatJapan’sdebtwouldhealth7ultimatelycrushitseconomyandseverelycrimppublicsectorspending,whileGloballessonsfromJapan–futureisRed11theprivatesectorwouldbeunabletoadjust,andhencelosecompetitiveness.Japanequities–ROEsvsv
5、aluation13Eventually,theprivatesectormightloseconfidenceandstoprepatriatingcashAppendices15andthecountrywouldthensufferfrommassivecapitaloutflows.Japan–NationaldebttoGDP(%)Notonlywerethesedireprojectionswrongfordecades,butastherestoftheworldjoinedJapanin
6、secularstagnationandunorthodoxmonetarypolicies,itis600%nolongerperceivedasanexceptionbutratherasapointertothefuture.Japan’s530%500%successinnavigatingdisruption,deepfinancializationandpermanent250%400%overcapacityisnowstudiedandimitated.Whilethereareloca
7、lnuances,Japanshowsthewayforward.QEsassociatedwiththeFedwereinventedinJapan300%morethanadecadeearlier.Thesameappliestofiscalstimuli,collapsingvelocity200%ofmoneyandstrongdisinflation.Whateverarethepolicies,Japanhasalready100%triedthem.Japanisfarmoreadvan
8、cedinfullymonetizingitsdebtbyutilizing0%multipleassetclasses,frombondstoequities.Italsoacceptsthatnormalization9809829849869889909929949969980000020040060080100120140161111111111222222222isnotfeasible,andunliketheFed,ithas
