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《麦格里集团-what caught my eye？v.76：the world of now ages-20170614-macquarie》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、GLOBALWhatcaughtmyeye?v.76TheworldofnowagesInthislatestissue,weaskwhywagegrowthacrossdevelopedeconomieshasconsistentlysurprisedonthedownside,despitetighteninglabourmarkets.Whetherweexaminecountriesthatarereportingrisingorfallinglabourparticipationrates,countriesthathaveyou
2、ngerorolderdemographics,highorlowunemploymentrates,theredoesnotappeartobeatraditionalPhilipscurverelationship,withwagesmutedwhencomparedtopastepisodes.Whatdrivesthisanomalyandwhatareitssocial,politicalandinvestmentimplications?InsideMostexplanationsthusfarhavefocusedondemo
3、graphicsasthekeyculprit.Inotherwords,acceleratedretirementofhigher-skilledandoldersectionsoftheAboutworkinghorses&people2labourforcedrivesdownparticipationrateswhileplacingpay-scalesandPeople&growth–weaklink4productivityunderpressure.Webelievethattheseviewsoverstatetheimpa
4、ctofdemographics,astheyseemtoberootedinan‘industrialage’whenproductivity,Brokendemandsupply=nowages12payscalesandlabourparticipationwasbasedonraw‘physical’powerandDystopianPortfoliosfordystopianworld17accumulationofexperience.Inthemodernera,whenAIisgraduallyreplacingAppend
5、ices21IQ,androbotsandautomationarereplacingrawmusclepower,theconventionaldemographic-basedanalysisisnotreflectingtherealityofmodernservice-GDP/Capitagrowthratevs.growthrateorientedeconomies.Italsofailscross-timeandcross-countrycomparisons.ofworkingagepopulation(1960-2013)F
6、orexample,ouranalysisillustratesthatevenifweignoreculturaldifferences,6.0%R²=0.0773andfocusjustonfourcomparableAngloSaxoncountries(US,UK,Canadaand5.0%Australia),theUSparticipationrateshavedeclinedfarmoresteeplyoverthelast4.0%3.0%decade,despitenodemographicdifferences.Thisa
7、ppliedtooverallaswellas2.0%maleandfemaleparticipation.Demographicsalsostruggletoexplaindifferences1.0%betweencountrieswithyoungervs.olderdemographics(suchasJapanor0.0%Germany)andcannotshinemuchlightonabroadlybasedlong-termdeclineinorkingAgePop(25-49)growthrateW-1.0%product
8、ivity.Also,evenforcountrieswithhistoricallylowunemploymentrates-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%
