汇丰银行-印度银行业-20170801-hsbc-indiabanks：savingmargins

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1、Flashnote1August2017IndiaBanksEQUITIESCOMMERCIALBANKSSavingmarginsIndiaSBIannouncesasurprise50bpscutinitssavingsdepositrateSachinSheth*SeniorBankAnalystThiscouldbeaccretivetomarginsprovideditdoesnotfollowHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimi

2、tedsachinsheth@hsbc.co.inwithanMCLRcut;PSUbanksmayfollowsuit+912222681224TejasMehta*WeretainourHoldratingonthestockasvisibilityofanassetAnalystHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedqualityrecoveryremainshazytejasmehta@hsbc.co.in+912222681243Stat

3、eBankofIndia[SBININ,INR299.10,Hold]announcedasurprise50bpscutAseemPant*Analystinitssavingsaccounts(SA)depositratesfordepositslessthanINR10mneffectiveHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimitedtoday.Thestockclosedup4.5%reflectingpositivemarketsentiment

4、andaseem.pant@hsbc.co.in+912233960688expectationsofthisbeingearningsaccretive.Amajorchange–Whywasitdone?AfterSArateswerederegulatedinOctober*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations2011,wethinkth

5、isisprobablythefirstinstanceofanybankinIndiacuttingSArates.BarringahandfulofsmallerbanksthatraisedSAratesafterderegulation,mostofthemajorbankshadSAratesfrozenat3.5%fromMarch2003until2011(andat4%fromSeptember2000toMarch2003).SBIinitspressreleasementionedlowinfl

6、ationandhighrealratesasthereason.ItalsomentionedthatthisratecutwouldenableittomaintainitsMCLRatcurrentlevelsaftercuttingit90bpsYTD,implyingthatitcouldhaveconsideredraisingMCLRwereitnotforthisSAratecut.AfterseeingasignificantinflowofINR1.5tninSAdepositsduringde

7、monetization,theyhaveseenabout60%ofthisflowoutoftheirbalancesheet,exertingpressureonmargins.Willotherbanksfollow?WethinkPSUbanksthataresimilarlyfacingCASAandmarginpressurearelikelytofollowsuitwhereasmostPVTbankshavealreadyreportedreasonableCASAandmarginsintheJ

8、unequartermakingthemlesslikelycandidatestofollowthrough.ItisevidentfromtheCASAtrendsthatPSUshavealreadystartedseeingCASAmixdipintheMar17quarterunlikePVTbankswhoareseeingthedowntick