汇丰银行-印度尼西亚银行业-20170804-hsbc-bankrakyatindonesia(bbriij)reduce,front-loadingcreditcostinto1h17

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1、4August2017BankRakyatIndonesia(BBRIIJ)EQUITIESCOMMERCIALBANKSReduce:Front-loadingcreditcostinto1H17Indonesia2Q17earningswereweigheddownbycreditcostMAINTAINREDUCEButthiscouldimprovein2H17duetocreditcostfront-loadingTARGETPRICE(IDR)PREVIOUSTARGET(ID

2、R)MaintainReduce.RaiseTPtoIDR12,200fromIDR10,82012,20010,820Withinconsensusexpectations.2Q17PPoPwasup18%y-o-ytoIDR12,821bnSHAREPRICE(IDR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDEthankstoa14%y-o-yincreaseintotalincome.Despitethis,pre-taxprofitwasupby14,950-18.4%only4%y-o-ytoIDR8,

3、145bnduetoa63%y-o-yincreaseinabsolutecreditcost.(asof02Aug2017)Althoughannualizedpre-taxearningsarewithinourfullyearestimateand9%belowMARKETDATAconsensus,weconsidertheresultstobein-linewithmarketexpectationsasBBRIMarketcap(IDRb)368,804Freefloat43%Marketc

4、ap(USDm)27,686BBGBBRIIJhasalludedtocreditcosttaperingoffin2H17e.BBRIstatedthatithasbeenfront-3mADTV(USDm)25RICBBRI.JKloadingcreditcostinto1H17.FINANCIALSANDRATIOS(IDR)Yearto12/2016a12/2017e12/2018e12/2019eSlowerloangrowthbutNIMincreases.Loangrowthslowedw

5、ithtotalloansrisingHSBCEPS989.331024.951238.151301.7512%y-o-yvs.17%in1Q17.ThiscouldbeduetorepaymentsfromcorporateHSBCEPS(prev)----Change(%)----borrowers.Asaresult,theloandepositratiofellto90%(1Q17:93%).NIMincreasedConsensusEPS1028.251135.531315.791489.30

6、54bpq-o-qto8.32%.ItisdifficulttoascertainwhatdrovethisasBBRIreleasedjustPE(x)15.114.612.111.5Dividendyield(%)2.82.12.52.6presentationslideswithoutanyfinancialsatthetimeofwriting.However,wewouldnotP/NAV2.52.22.01.8besurprisedifthisNIMstrengthwascausedbyac

7、countingreclassification.BBRI’sROEinc.gwill(%)18.816.317.516.3NIMhashistoricallybeenvolatileduetoaccountingchangesandreclassifications.52-WEEKPRICE(IDR)Theseaccountingchangesmayhavemaskedtheshort-termNIMdirectionbutthe17000.00long-termtrendhasbeenoneofNI

8、Mslippage.Toputitintoperspective,NIMhas13400.00fallento7.68%in2016from10.15%in2006.BBRIistheonlybankamongthetopfourlargestbanksinthecountrytohaveseenconsistentNIMslippageovertheyears.9800.0008/1602/1708/17Targetprice:12200