汇丰银行-韩国-银行业-稳健盈利应继续

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1、18October2017KoreaBanksEQUITIESFIG3Q17preview:SolidearningsshouldcontinueKoreaKoreanbanksshouldcontinuetodeliversolidearningsSinyoungPark*Analyst,KoreaFinancialsin3Q17TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranchsinyoungpark@kr.hsbc.comNIMexpansi

2、onislikelytoslowbutasub-normallevelofcredit+82237068770costshouldsupportthesteadyrisk-adjustedmargintrend*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsRegulatoryconcernsshouldeasegivenlimitedfundamentalimpact;ourpre

3、ferredplaysareKBFG&Hana(bothBuy)3Q17preview:SolidearningsshouldcontinueBanksinourcoveragerelease3Q17resultsfrom26October2017.ThemagnitudeofNIMexpansionshouldslow(1-2bpsq-o-qvs.+9bpsin1H17)butasub-normallevelofcreditcostshouldcontinueatlargecommercialbanks,supportingtherisk-ad

4、justedmargin.AlthoughtheremaybeaprovisioningburdenduetoKumhoTire,weexpectthelevelofrecurringcreditcosttoremainlow(26bpsatlargecommercialbanks)aftermulti-yearportfoliorestructuringandafocusoncollateralisedlending.TheBankofKorea’smonthlydatasuggestindustryloangrowthwasrobustin3

5、Q17,recording2.2%q-o-qgrowth(+2.0%inmortgagesgivenastrongpick-upbeforestrictermortgagerulesbecameeffectivefrom23August).RegulatoryconcernslikelytoeasegivenlimitedfundamentalimpactThesoon-to-beannouncedHHdebtmeasureswilllikelyfallwithinexpectations(i.e.,introducingDSR,tighteru

6、nderwritingguidelinesformulti-homeowners,andsupportivemeasuresforlower-incomehouseholds),unliketheAugustpropertymeasures,whichwerestrongerthanexpected.Recentnews(5Sep,Yonhap)oncuttingthelendingrateondelinquentloansandraisingLDRweightsforhouseholdloanswillhavealimitedimpact,su

7、b-1%ofannualearnings.Recentcorrectionprovidesopportunitytoaddtopositions:PreferKBFGandHanagivengreaterroomtoimproveoncostandcapitalmanagementKoreanBankshareshavebeenweakduetoregulatoryconcernssurroundingtheMiFIDII–Researchhouseholddebtissue.However,astheycontinuetodeliversoli

8、dearnings,inlinewithraisedconsensusexpectations,webelievesharescanre