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1、22August2017KoreaBanksEQUITIESFIGRisk-adjustedmarginexpansiontocontinuein2H17KoreaWeexpectasolid2H17,withcontinuedrisk-adjustedmarginSinyoungPark*expansionandimprovedearningsstabilityAnalyst,KoreaFinancialsTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBr
2、anchUpgradingShinhanFGtoBuyfromHoldgivenstrongersinyoungpark@kr.hsbc.com+82237068770earningsoutlookbackedbysharplylowercreditcost*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisRaisingTPsby9%onaveragegivenupwardearningsnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulati
3、onsrevision,factoringinhigherNIMandlowercreditcostoutlookSolid2H17aheadwithcontinuedrisk-adjustedmarginexpansionWithpricingpowerrecovery,tightcostcontrolandsharpdeclineincreditcosts,Koreanbankshaveenjoyedasignificantconsensusearningsupgrade.Butdespitea40%/30%increaseinlargeba
4、nks’FY17-18earningsestimatessinceMay2016,webelievebanksarestillcapableofdeliveringfurtherupside.Weexpectasolidearningsstreamtocontinuein2H17onthebackof:1)creditcosttrendingdownfurther,2)levelled-upNIMwithhigherspreadsand3)costsavingseffortsmaterializing.Plus,therewillbelessne
5、gativeseasonalityin4Q17enowthatbanksdonothaveayear-endNPLtargettomeet.UpgradingShinhanFGtoBuyfromHold,likelytocatchupwithpeersAlthoughShinhanFGsharesalsorose28%sinceMay2016,ithasbeenalaggardbecausecreditcostimprovementwasnotasvisiblecomparedtopeers.However,webelieveShinhan’sp
6、aceofcreditcostimprovementwillpickup,narrowingthegapvs.largepeers.Assuch,themagnitudeofourearningsrevisionisthebiggestatShinhanFG,raisingFY17-18earningsestimatesby16%eachwhereweare11%and8%aboveconsensus,respectively.RaisingTPsby9%onaverageafterupwardearningsrevisionWeraiseour
7、FY17-18estimatesforKoreanbanksinourcoverageby9%and8%on✔VoteinAsiamoneyBrokersPoll2017averagetoreflectstronger-than-expected2Qtrends.Webelievestrongerandmorestableearningsmomentumwillcontinuetosupportbanks’valuation.Stronger-than-Votingstarts6thJulyexpectedhouseholddebtmeasure
8、s,scheduledtobeannouncedinSeptember2017Ifyouvalueourserviceandinsigh